10 Stocks Grow To With Find a company with the size, stability, and earnings power to see you through the market's ups and downs--and hold on to it.
By Nelson D. Schwartz And Julie Creswell

(FORTUNE Magazine) – Here's a fresh take on investing for retirement: Don't worry about next week's earnings news and how it affects stock prices. Or next month's. Or even next quarter's. Instead, keep your eye on the earnings outlook for the next quarter-century. Unfortunately, in our CNBC-addicted universe, where beating the whisper number can be a make-or-break proposition and an IPO can triple before lunch, long-term potential is often the last thing on investors' minds. In fact, some people's idea of investing these days is making a quick buck on a hot Internet stock. That kind of stock picking may be fun, but it's no way to plan for retirement.

A better strategy is to hold on to companies with the size, stability, and earnings power to carry investors through whatever the market throws their way in the decades to come. As Tom Galvin, chief investment strategist for Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette, puts it, "The lesson of the 1990s has been to find and keep growth stocks, particularly those with the right business plan and the right management." If anything, Galvin adds, the biggest mistake people have made in recent years "is selling quality names too early."

Of course, finding that kind of long-distance champ isn't easy. To make our picks, we talked with top strategists like Galvin as well as with prominent mutual fund managers and Wall Street analysts. But we didn't stop there. We pored over balance sheets and income statements, looking for a few key criteria.

First, we insisted on strong earnings growth that wasn't dependent on a single product or a risky strategy. Our picks also had to demonstrate growth in major product lines, a key ingredient if profits are going to rise steadily for years to come. Then we wanted to see strong management teams who know how to please Wall Street--but who never neglect the big picture. Finally, we tried to balance out more expensive, pure growth stocks such as Cisco Systems and Home Depot with cheaper, value-oriented plays like Ford and UAL. Not only does the combination offer diversification, but the lower P/Es of the last two names and their ilk should also provide a bit of cushioning in the inevitable ups and downs of the market.

Speaking of a possible downturn, don't get the idea that these ten stocks can't fall. They can. It's just that they have the strength and long-term potential to carry you through retirement.

One more bit of advice: Our picks aren't ranked in any particular order. They're all equally good, depending on your own needs and strategy.

Certainly, it's hard to beat the drug sector for stocks to grow with. Pharmaceuticals companies have a long record of churning out steady gains year after year, and they're also one of the rare segments of the market that can flourish even when the economy falters. Over the next few years, drug and other health-care stocks should benefit, as millions of baby-boomers head into their 50s and 60s, requiring new treatments for everything from high cholesterol to hypertension to diabetes.

Those are some of the reasons Bristol-Myers Squibb is so appealing. Thanks to strong sales of existing drugs, the stock has already risen 12% this year, and with a pipeline full of potential blockbusters, it still has plenty of room to run, according to Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown analyst Mariola Haggar. "Bristol," she says, "is one of the few drug companies that has both a solid earnings growth rate and several new catalysts for future gains."

For example, Haggar notes that sales of Glucophage, a diabetes drug, should jump nearly 40% this year, to $1 billion-plus. What's more, the FDA recently approved Avandia, a diabetes drug co-marketed in the U.S. by Bristol and SmithKline Beecham--which can be used in conjunction with Glucophage--and Haggar thinks it will generate $600 million in sales by 2001. Later this year, Haggar says, the FDA should also approve Orzel, a new treatment for colon cancer. "Orzel appears to be a major advance over existing drugs in terms of both side effects and convenience," she says. And then there's Vanlev, a treatment for high blood pressure that could receive final approval by the middle of next year. Combining strong potency with mild side effects, Vanlev is aimed at a huge market--$10 billion worldwide--that Bristol is already familiar with from its success with Pravachol, its well-known hypertension remedy.

That's not all: While Bristol is usually thought of as a drugmaker, it also has a thriving consumer products division. Sales of its Herbal Essences line, for example, jumped 28% in the most recent quarter.

Overall, earnings should grow by roughly 15% in the next few years, says Haggar. Plus, a big share-buyback program, now under way, could boost the stock. Throw in a dividend of 1.2%, and you have a prescription for gains for years to come.

The same demographic and economic factors propelling drug stocks should also help Johnson & Johnson. Think of consumer health-care products, and you almost inevitably think of a J&J brand. (Indeed, the name Band-Aid has become a generic term, rather than just a brand of self-adhesive strips.) Plenty of the company's other over-the-counter offerings--such as Tylenol, Motrin, Imodium A-D, and Mylanta--are also mainstays of the family medicine cabinet in the U.S. and Europe. J&J recently introduced Benecol, a margarine-like spread that has been shown to lower cholesterol levels. In 1999 alone, says J.P. Morgan analyst Michael Weinstein, J&J's consumer unit should contribute nearly $7 billion in revenue. Just to give one example: The Neutrogena unit is expected to post revenue growth of roughly 40% in 1999.

But J&J is also a powerhouse in the prescription-drug area. Analysts are especially excited about Procrit, a drug that spurs the growth of oxygen-rich red blood cells among chemotherapy patients and anemia sufferers. Sales in the U.S. jumped 68% in the latest quarter, says Weinstein, who thinks the drug could generate worldwide sales of more than $2 billion in 2000. Also keep an eye on Levaquin, a potent new antibiotic that kills off bacteria that have grown resistant to older drugs. Even better, Levaquin doesn't appear to trigger the side effects associated with other powerful antibiotics.

Thus, with robust growth in both pharmaceuticals and consumer products, J&J should see earnings per share rise from $3 in 1999 to $3.40 in 2000, Weinstein predicts--probably beating the Street's expectations in the coming quarters. "This is the broadest health-care company out there," he adds. "They're everywhere. That makes J&J one of the best demographic plays around."

In contrast to the drug sector, technology stocks aren't always associated with long-term investing. After all, by now practically everyone has had to listen to a neighbor or co-worker boast about the quick buck she made on a two-day-old Internet IPO. But in reality, the big long-term money is often made by patiently buying and holding shares of the best, established tech stocks, rather than jumping in and out of hot names. For example, $10,000 invested in Microsoft a decade ago would now be worth $1.2 million. A similar investment in Cisco would yield $3.9 million

Although that kind of gain is not likely to be repeated over the next ten years, Cisco Systems remains a strong growth candidate. Often referred to on Wall Street as the King of Networking, Cisco supplies the hardware that moves information over the Internet--in fact, analysts estimate that more than 80% of Internet traffic flows over Cisco gear at some point. Not surprisingly, as the volume of data traveling over the Net has surged, so has demand for Cisco's products.

In the latest quarter, revenue jumped by 44%, to $3.2 billion, an unusually strong increase for a company of that size. Profits soared as well, rising nearly 30%, to $646 million. "Cisco has the broadest and deepest product portfolio in the industry," says CS First Boston's Paul Weinstein. "In nearly every sector in which it competes, Cisco has the No. 1 or No. 2 position."

A second way Cisco has managed to fuel its growth is by buying small companies with promising technologies. Since 1996 it has made 25 acquisitions, often using its fast-rising stock as currency. Not only have those purchases enabled Cisco to crush once-threatening rivals like Cabletron and Newbridge Networks, but they've also given the company a head start in cutting-edge fields like the integration of voice, video, and data.

Result: The stock is up 40% just in 1999, trading at 65 times 2000 earnings. How much higher can it possibly go? Well, Weinstein is asked that question all the time, and he says that if anything, the outlook is getting brighter. Revenue growth is actually accelerating, and profits in the next year could easily come in well above expectations. Because of Cisco's dominant position in the networking arena, its growth pattern can continue for years to come--justifying the high valuation. "Cisco's management is more bullish than it's been in a long time," Weinstein says.

Cisco isn't the only good tech growth stock. Just six years ago, most of Wall Street was happy to consign IBM to the investment junkyard. But under CEO Lou Gerstner, Big Blue has been transformed from a lumbering dinosaur into a nimble New Economy gazelle. One of the secrets of its success has been its ability to build on its strength in big-iron hardware segments like servers and mainframes while also expanding its share in software and services. In 1999 software alone should contribute nearly $13 billion to IBM's expected $90 billion in revenue. Services, meanwhile, should add a further $34 billion.

"Software and services will drive the future of this company, especially given the growing complexity of technology today," says Merrill Lynch analyst Steven Milunovich. The strength in those two sectors is among the reasons IBM's profits are expected to jump by nearly 20% this year, roughly double the projected rate of the average S&P 500 company. What's more, the service business boasts sizable gross margins--about 26%--as well as consistent, recurring payment schedules that make earnings growth more predictable.

The incredible expansion of the Internet as a business medium should also prove a boon for IBM for decades, as demand surges for everything from Web hosting to e-business consulting. "With 25% of its revenue coming from e-business, IBM is becoming a quasi-Internet company," says Milunovich. "In the Internet wars, IBM is an arms supplier." Yet IBM hardly trades like an Internet stock. It's now at 31 times 2000 earnings--a fraction of the valuation of Internet plays such as Yahoo, Amazon, or even Sun Microsystems. That combination of growth and value should keep IBM shares rising, says Milunovich. How much? "This stock should increase by at least 20% over the next year."

When it comes to the fast-growing telecom sector of the technology revolution, it's hard to find a better bet than MCI WorldCom. As Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown analyst Kevin Moore puts it, "This company has the best long-term position in the industry."

For starters, there's its thriving data business. MCI WorldCom is already the world's largest Internet service provider, and revenues from its Internet unit jumped by an impressive 60% in the latest quarter. In addition, having made substantial investments in overseas markets, the company now stands to benefit from telecom deregulation in Europe and elsewhere. Thus, between this year and 2000, profits should increase by more than 40%, making MCI WorldCom one of the fastest-growing large-cap companies around. Even when you look out over a few years, the profit growth should remain very strong; Moore expects earnings to rise by 30% annually over the next three to five years.

Despite that kind of long-term performance, MCI WorldCom still trades at only 32 times next year's earnings, well below the valuation of other fast-growing companies. One reason for the relative pessimism is that Wall Street is worried that CEO Bernie Ebbers is about to make a costly acquisition of a big wireless company such as Nextel or Sprint. Wireless is the one area of telecom in which MCI WorldCom isn't a player, so a deal would make sense. However, it might cause a brief dip in the stock. If that happens, says Moore, back up the truck and buy as many shares as you can. If you think the stock's a good value now, it'll be an even better deal then. "It'll be the last chance you ever have to buy this company at a discount," Moore predicts.

Now back as far away from the tech sector as you can imagine--all the way to auto stocks. Sure, it's easy to be wary of automobile manufacturers and other cyclical industries, which can screech to a halt as soon as interest rates inch up and consumer-spending growth flattens. But thanks to changes in production processes and focus, plus some timely acquisitions, Ford Motor, for one, is pretty well positioned for any eventual slowdown. This isn't, in other words, your father's Ford.

For instance, computer-aided-design systems have slashed the production cycle from 40 months to 24 and soon--probably--a mere 18. That means that exciting new products can be brought out more quickly, says Gail Bardin, a portfolio manager at Hotchkis & Wiley. Also, Ford now produces more than one model--such as the Expedition and Navigator--from a given manufacturing platform. Thus it can quickly adjust to changes in demand, explains Silas Myers, a Hotchkis & Wiley equity analyst.

Ford also hopes to smooth out its cyclical earnings by expanding its automotive services operations. Over the course of ten years, the company says, consumers spend an average of $60,000 on a car, only $18,000 of which actually buys the vehicle. The rest goes for parts and labor. If there is a significant slowdown in the economy, people are likely to maintain their existing cars rather than buy new ones--and Ford wants a piece of that action.

Meanwhile, a flurry of recent acquisitions has given Ford a nice stable of high-margin luxury brands, including Lincoln, Volvo, Jaguar, and Aston Martin. Thanks to sales of such brands plus its popular F-Series pickup trucks--along with more than $5.4 billion in cost cutting since 1997--Ford's profit margin is up to 4.4%, compared with an industry average of 3.3%. And the company has a net cash position of more than $16.5 billion. What will it do with all that money? Probably make more acquisitions or buy back its stock, analysts say.

Naturally, the good news hasn't gone unnoticed. The stock has risen to around $54 from last year's low of $30. But the P/E ratio of 9.5 still makes Ford cheap compared with the 31.3 average for the S&P 500. And if you agree with Ronald Muhlenkamp, manager of the $200 million Muhlenkamp fund, who thinks the U.S. is on the brink of a new growth cycle--well, with new strategies, rising profits, and a nice cash hoard, who needs to worry about cyclical problems?

If you're surprised to see "auto manufacturer" in the same sentence as "growth stocks," how about "insurance company"? But we're not talking about any old insurance company. This is American International Group--better known as AIG--the international financial-services giant. AIG has maintained a 15% annual growth rate over the past two decades, and it shows no signs of slowing down in the new millennium. That kind of earnings consistency makes its P/E ratio of 30 look less formidable. From its current price of $118, the stock could climb as high as $148 in the next 12 months, says Prudential Securities insurance analyst Alice Cornish.

AIG's primary strength lies in its uniquely diverse product line. In addition to the typical commercial property-casualty and life insurance products, it offers specialized policies covering environmental liability, product tampering, and even executive kidnapping and ransoms. While its domestic business is largely commercial, the life insurance side seems likely to grow, thanks to AIG's $18 billion purchase this past January of SunAmerica, says Christopher Perry, a senior securities analyst at Turner Investment Partners in Berwyn, Pa.

Another strong point is the company's heavy global presence, unusual for a U.S. insurer: About half its revenue and profits come from outside the U.S., mainly Asia. "It's been perhaps the single-biggest beneficiary of the modernization of China of any U.S. company," says Jeffrey Lindsey, lead manager of the $2.5 billion Putnam Growth Opportunities fund. (In fact, in 1919, AIG founder C.V. Starr was selling insurance in China through a company that eventually became AIG. Forced out by World War II and again by the communist takeover, AIG resumed its Chinese operations in 1992.)

Perhaps the biggest risk the company faces is the market's reaction when its hugely respected 74-year-old CEO, Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, steps down. Not that Greenberg is going anywhere anytime soon, analysts say. "He looks like he's 60, and he's full of energy," says Prudential's Cornish. "I think he plans to stay there as long as he can." The likely heir when he does leave: his son, Evan, the company's president and COO.

Whether or not the senior Greenberg is at the helm, investors can look forward to years of strong performance from AIG, experts predict. "When you think about the opportunities this company has in the next ten years in places such as India and China, this is a stock I would include in my [retirement] portfolio," says John Snyder, chief investment officer of John Hancock Sovereign Investors Fund. We would too.

Alongside it, put Home Depot. Just as McDonald's reinvented the way we eat and Wal-Mart the way we shop, Home Depot has changed the way Americans fix their houses. Instead of calling a handyman, people these days are increasingly likely to pick up a hammer and do it themselves. And while they're at it, Home Depot has also changed the way they buy their hammers.

Home Depot did this not only by selling every type of screwdriver and power saw known to humankind, but by offering service and useful tips at its gigantic outlets. Unable to compete, local stores and even smaller nationwide chains like Hechinger/Builders Square are getting squeezed out. Today Home Depot has 820 stores across the nation.

And it's not finished. The company plans to operate 1,600 stores in the U.S. and Canada by 2002. It is trying to broaden its appeal by expanding its EXPO Design Center chain, where consumers can stroll through showrooms filled with high-end and unusual bathroom and kitchen cabinets and appliances. Following Wal-Mart's lead, Home Depot is also expanding overseas. Earlier this year it hired the president of Swedish furniture-maker IKEA to head up its international group, which currently consists of just two stores in Chile and plans for another in Argentina. Moreover, it's using its muscle to keep online rivals at bay (see First).

Over the past decade, Home Depot has compounded its sales and earnings by around 30% per year. Its stock, meanwhile, has climbed 46% in the past year, to around 69 currently. This has resulted in a P/E ratio upwards of 45, but investors and analysts say that's cheap when you consider the prospects: The company has a good chance of growing earnings at 25% annually over the next ten years. Scott Mullinix, a senior equity analyst at American Express Financial Advisors, says Home Depot is well on its way to grabbing one-third of the home-improvement market, and revenues could top $100 billion in the next five years, from last year's $37 billion. "We think the stock is worth something in the mid-80s right now," he says.

The big question is, What happens if interest rates rise significantly and the U.S. economy slows? One line of thinking says that Home Depot's stock, like that of many consumer-oriented businesses, will drop like a hammer from a 20-story building. But others argue that sales may actually increase, because consumers will be more likely to remodel or repair existing homes themselves rather than build or buy new ones. "Home Depot isn't as much of a cyclical company as a homebuilder might be," says Marshall Acuff, an equity strategist at Salomon Smith Barney. "Much of its business is renovation or modernization, and that just keeps on rolling."

Tyco International, too, keeps on rolling. No, we're not talking about the toy company. Tyco is an industrial conglomerate, based in Exeter, N.H., with business lines in such decidedly unplayful areas as disposable medical supplies, flow-control products (read: valves), electrical components, and fire-protection and security systems, services, and products. Over the past five years, earnings have increased by an average annual rate of 30%, and this year they're expected to rocket 50%. That has propelled the stock up 48% in the past 12 months. (Since 1992 it's up nearly ninefold.)

The primary strategy is growth by acquisition. Under Dennis Kozlowski, who was named CEO in 1992, Tyco has made 110 acquisitions. And the shopping spree is likely to continue, since it's estimated that the company will have as much as $1.3 billion in available cash flow by September. But Tyco doesn't buy just any old company. "Tyco walks away from nine out of ten deals after they start the due-diligence process," says Tim Ghriskey, who manages more than $4 billion for the Dreyfus mutual fund family. Kozlowski, he says, seeks underperforming companies that he can get on the cheap. Ghriskey adds: "Their deals are immediately accretive to earnings."

Not that Tyco ignores the businesses it already has. On the contrary, it looks for ways to improve their prospects as well, asserts Tom Arrington, who manages more than $3.4 billion at Founders Funds. "Of the 50% growth in earnings we expect to see this year, the fact is, about 20% to 25% of that will come from existing businesses," Arrington says.

With a P/E ratio of 33 times this year's earnings, Tyco isn't necessarily cheap. But Lehman Brothers analyst Phua Young argues that the valuation should be closer to that of General Electric's 35, and he has a 12-month price target of $150 (from the current $99).

If 33 times earnings isn't cheap enough for you, look high--high up in the sky, that is--at the airline stocks. Of course, some of the stocks in this sector definitely deserve their cheap valuations. Earnings per share for the group have fallen 28% over the past 12 months. More than a couple of companies are suffering from poor labor relations (remember the pilots' sickout at American last February?) and really ugly public relations (Northwest's Detroit snowstorm debacle). The average airline P/E ratio these days is hovering at 12.1. And the laggard among the laggards is certainly UAL, the parent company of United Airlines. UAL's stock has sunk 26% in the past year, to $63, and its P/E ratio is a measly 9.2. But there are signs that the company may be poised for a recovery.

UAL's problems are largely due to the economic turmoil in Asia. It is one of only two U.S. carriers with routes to the region. (The other is Northwest.) In 1997, UAL earned $350 million from its Asian routes; now it's just about breaking even, estimates Marc Pinto, an institutional portfolio manager at Janus Funds. "By next year," he predicts hopefully, "I think the Pacific will be profitable once again."

But UAL's growth prospects aren't dependent only on a turnaround in Asia. Its domestic hub network is one of the best, thanks to positions in key markets like Chicago, San Francisco, Denver, and Washington, D.C. And its Transatlantic Star Alliance boasts a strong partner in Lufthansa.

"It's been a survivor in a difficult industry, and I like its exposure toward Asia over the next five to ten years," says David King, lead manager of the Putnam Fund for Growth & Income. "All the airlines are inexpensive right now, but this one is particularly cheap."

So take flight with UAL. Drive off with Ford. Call up MCI WorldCom. Surf the Web with IBM and Cisco. Ease your pains with J&J. Whatever happens to the markets between now and the day you say goodbye to the working life, any of these stocks should give you the kind of growth you'll need for a comfortable retirement.