(FORTUNE Magazine) – At 2:15 p.m. Eastern Time on June 30, the day of the scheduled handover of sovereignty to Iraq, look for another major symbolic change on the economic front: a 0.25% interest rate boost from the Fed (that is, if 106 out of 130 economists recently surveyed by Bloomberg are to be believed). It's a pittance, yes--especially because the federal funds rate currently stands at a 46-year low of 1%--but "it's likely to be a major turning point," says Yale economist Robert Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance. Last week Greenspan said the Fed anticipates raising rates in a "measured" fashion, but he also signaled that he would do what it takes to keep inflation in check. Assuming this hike happens, when can we expect to feel the pain? "That's the question I'm wondering about," says Shiller. "It will have an immediate impact on people's thinking, but a lot of the effects of higher rates won't be felt for years. A 25-or even 50-basis-point increase is not normally devastating to the economy." That's a relief. But keep an eye on energy prices. "If prices remain high and begin to affect people's expectations about future inflation," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, "the Federal Reserve may be forced to become more aggressive in its tightening." Either way, looks like the days of money for practically nothing are over.

--Ellen Florian