Some industry experts speculate that retailers "hold back" inventory because they want to create buzz and lure shoppers, especially in November and December. That two-month period accounts for as much as 50 percent of sales and profits for many retailers.

Pat Convoy, vice chairman with Deloitte's consumer business practice, doesn't buy that argument. "I don't think retailers missed the target with their holiday inventory allocation," Conroy said. "If they could get more of these products, they would. Retailers want to maximize their sales and profits during the fourth quarter and not lose sales."

NPD's Cohen saw it differently.

"Retailers have put this situation into play over the last five years. In their quest to protect themselves from a bad season, they're being very cautious about not taking on too much inventory," Cohen said.

Inventory controls are critical in the fourth quarter. Ideally, retailers don't want to be caught short, or stuck with too much merchandise, forcing them to slash prices even more to clear out seasonal products, hurting profits.