Whether oil fluctuates $25 in a year or stays within a narrow band, politics will always move prices.

Among the global events that could send prices higher: The collapse of the peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah; tighter sanctions imposed on Iran; sabotage attacks in Nigeria; a pickup in the war in Iraq; further nuclear tests from North Korea.

An astute reading of the news can tip you off to impending events, and buying (or selling) a day before can net you big money, people who trade for themselves say.

"With just about everything that happens people turn their head and say Where's oil?" said Eric Bolling, an independent energy trader who has a seat on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "Everything is tied to oil."