NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - When it comes to the business of Wall Street, the numbers once again don't look good. And the possibility of a fourth straight year of stock market declines could mean more tough times for the firms that make money by raising money for corporate America.

Only three companies have gone public this year, according to Dealogic, compared to 10 initial public offerings at this time last year. The number of announced corporate mergers and acquisitions is down 29 percent from year-ago levels and off 60 percent from 2000's peak.

When the quarter ends Monday for Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley, the companies count one bright spot. Bond underwriting continued to hold up as issuers lured by low interest rates sold $93 billion in debt this year, Dealogic figures show.

But this year's lower stock market has cut assets under management. Trading volume has not improved. And all four brokerages in December agreed to pay at least $80 million each to end a probe alleging they misled investors with tainted stock research during the late 90s.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index, which has not had a winning year since 1999, begins Thursday's session down 6 percent year-to-date. More than anything else, it's the bear market that has hamstrung Wall Street.

"The numbers are pretty self evident," said David Ellison, portfolio manager of the FBR Financial Services Fund. "The bond area is the only area that has been reasonably good."

For all the problems, the brokerage and investment banking business is in better shape than, say, airlines and telecommunications. Those industries lost billions of dollars over the last two years.

In contrast, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns are highly profitable, thanks in part to tens of thousands of jobs cuts that began in 2000.

When it reports results late next month, Goldman (GS: Research, Estimates) is expected to post a first-quarter profit of $1.33 per share, according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by First Call, up from $1.29 cents a share earned a year ago.

The other three are forecast to show modest EPS declines, with Lehman's (LEH: Research, Estimates) profit falling to 62 cents from 72, Bear Stearns' (BSC: Research, Estimates) dropping to 93 cents a share from 99 cents, and Morgan Stanley's (BSC: Research, Estimates) slipping to 92 cents from 98 cents.

Analysts who cover the business are trying to gauge how much a war with Iraq would keep companies deferring decisions on mergers, and stock and bond offerings. A conflict may also keep investors away from the stock market, hurting trading volumes and commissions. An index of consumer confidence Tuesday fell to the lowest level in more than nine years.

The course of any war is tough to predict, with scenarios ranging from no military action to a quick U.S. victory. New terrorist attacks and military involvement with North Korea could keep markets on edge.

And then there's an economy where businesses are not spending money to buy equipment and create jobs.

"Even assuming a break in the Iraq paralysis at some point, capital markets activity levels will also need somewhat favorable economic conditions to result in revenue improvement," David Trone, of Prudential Securities, told clients late last month.

Trone said he expects Morgan Stanley's revenue to fall 1 percent this year. He lowered his 2003 earnings per share estimates on the company to $2.75 from $3.05 and cut his price target to $41 from $45.

But that downgrade came a week after Goldman Sachs upgraded Morgan Stanley, saying its stock looks attractive.

Companies and municipalities continue to sell debt. Some $93 billion in bonds have come to market this year, up from $65 billion this time last year.

Dealogic figures also show that $48 billion in mergers and acquisitions have been announced this year, down from $57 billion in the same period in 2002.

Among the four companies, Bear Stearns' business is most tied to bond underwriting and trading. That helped its shares hold steady last year, a 12-month period when the Standard & Poor's 500 fell more than 23 percent.

Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, is more leveraged to the potentially profitable mergers and acquisitions business. Goldman shares fell 27 percent last year.

Brokerages have done some dealmaking of their own. U.S. Bancorp (USB: Research, Estimates) last week took steps to separate itself from its broker unit, Piper Jaffray, which generated less than 1 percent of the bank's income last year. The Minneapolis bank is spinning off the unit to shareholders.

Wachovia Corp. and Prudential Financial Inc. agreed this month to combine their retail brokerage units, creating the No 3 brokerage by brokers behind Merrill Lynch, Citigroup's Salomon Smith Barney and Morgan Stanley.

Some 1,750 jobs will be eliminated and 131 offices will be closed by 2005 as a result of the Wachovia/Prudential deal. Those moves will save $220 million, the companies said.

Still, investors do not appear to be betting on better times for the four brokerages with December-February quarters. Bear Stearns shares are up 1.6 percent this year, but Lehman Brothers is down 0.5 percent, Goldman Sachs is off 2.5 percent and Morgan Stanley is 11.2 percent lower in 2003.