SAN FRANCISCO (CNN/Money) - We interrupt your regularly scheduled war programming for a few words about what comes next.

But first, a question: What exactly are investors so optimistic about that they've driven the Dow up six consecutive days?

Well, they're optimistic that the economic and political situations have stopped getting worse. We don't have any evidence of that, of course.

On the contrary, most indicators suggest a sick economy getting sicker. And exactly how a post-war Iraq plays out on the world's stage is anyone's guess. Yet we sense that the stock market has been discounted to the bone because of war fears. Now a premium accorded to a quick and successful war has cancelled out the previous discount.

Still some optimism is warranted. Should things go well, there's every reason to believe businesses, consumers and investors -- a Venn Diagram would reveal a fair amount of overlap among the three -- will pick up their stunted activity.

The big picture every investor should keep in mind, though, is that success from now on is relative.

Consider this quote on the subject of optimism from an excellent article by Justin Fox in the current issue of Fortune: "It doesn't mean Cisco (CSCO: Research, Estimates) selling for $80 a share by July -- or even $40. It doesn't mean $100,000-a-year jobs for everybody who graduates from college this spring. It doesn't mean 4 percent or 5 percent economic growth -- at least not yet."

"What it means is another year sort of like last year, when gross domestic product grew 2.4 percent. That means another year during which the job market doesn't get a whole lot better, but also doesn't collapse. It means another year during which promises of a strong economic rebound are postponed, but so are fears of a double-dip recession. Another year, that is, that will stump the doomsayers even while it fails to inspire us to party like it's 1999."

We would all settle for things to get just a little better. We would all settle for the troops to come home safely. We would all settle for modest gains in the stock market this year. No, make that any gains in the stock market in 2003. Because our optimism and our goals have become modest. Right?

Adam Lashinsky is a senior writer for Fortune magazine. Send e-mail to Adam at lashinskysbottomline@yahoo.com.

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