NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
In some respects, nothing has changed. Looking at mutual fund returns for the first quarter, it seems we're in the same old bear market we've endured for three years.
Virtually all categories of stock funds lost money, with the average domestic stock fund down about 2.7 percent through March 31, according to Morningstar. The Standard & Poor's 500 fell 3.3 percent over that period.
Among winners and losers, however, there has been a changing of the guard.
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"Some of the best performers for the bear market had an awful quarter and some of the worst performers during the bear market had a good quarter," said Russel Kinnel, director of fund analysis for Morningstar.
The Rydex Venture 100 fund, which was up more than 50 percent in 2002 thanks to its short-selling strategy, fell 14.2 percent in the quarter. ProFunds UltraShort lost 13.4 percent.
Meanwhile, technology funds dominated the list of top performers. Amerindo Technology did better than any other stock fund, gaining 24.4 percent in the first quarter.
Among bond funds, portfolios heavy on high yield did an about-face, with the average fund in this group up 5.4 percent in the quarter. "Last year people got panicky about corporate debt because of Enron and WorldCom," said Kinnel. "The spread (between government and corporate bonds) got too big and the market reversed."
Think twice before chasing the winners
Those are the highlights. Now for a word of a caution.
While it's interesting to note what funds outperformed over the quarter, don't base your investment choices on these short-term results. As always, your best bet is to stick with a diversified plan and resist chasing past returns.
"It's very hard for individual investors to take advantage of sector swings," said Dave Goerz, chief investment officer for online investment advisory mPower. "In most cases you're looking in the rearview mirror"
Reading the list of best-performing mutual funds in the first quarter you might think you've traveled back in time to the late 1990s. Funds investing in technology managed to put out positive returns for the quarter, with Amerindo Technology up 24.4 percent for the year, Jundt U.S. Emerging Growth up 13.6 percent and RS Information Age up 9.4 percent.
"Over the past six months technology companies have started to beat estimates," said Goerz, noting that the earnings growth rate for technology in 2003 is expected to outpace that of the overall market. Yet, Goerz isn't convinced that's a case for buying, arguing earnings were depressed to begin with.
"We're talking nickels and dimes here," says Goerz. "If you go from earning one penny to earning two pennies you have 100 percent earnings growth, but we're still just talking a penny."
Despite the recent spike, funds invested heavily in tech are a far cry from taking back all that they've lost these past three years. Amerindo Technology is down an average 47 percent each year over the past three years. The Munder NetNet fund, up 6.8 percent in 2003, has lost an average of 51 percent a year over the past three years. (See "Is the Tech Rally for Real.")
Managers still risk averse
Big bets in technology have paid off -- at least for now. Yet most mutual fund managers, according to Morningstar's Kinnel, are steering clear of technology and in many cases building up their cash positions.
"Most active managers are investing in what they think is a sure thing rather than their best speculative ideas," said Kinnel. "Nobody is out there trying to be a hero right now."
In fact, the real winners for this past quarter may not show up for years to come. "In down markets skilled managers can add value, but it's value they add over many years and it takes time to play out," he said.
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