NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - I'm beginning to realize that no one wants to make big bets ahead of the weekend. The Dow finished down 17.92 at 8,203.41 while the Nasdaq slid 6.76 to 1,358.85. But the word on the Street has changed: It's no longer about the war. Focus on fundamentals. The problem is, no one quite knows what to make of those.

Take today's retail sales report. We're supposed to be hoarding, not spending, but yet retail sales soared 2.1 percent, beating expectations by more than factor of three. Good news? Well, most of the surge was due to steep climbs in auto sales and building materials -- gotta love statistics -- leading the sages to advise caution, not jubilation. Maybe cautious sages are the most hopeful sign yet.

STOCK STUFF And earnings season is upon us! Next week is the busiest one of all -- fun, fun. I have to say, it's been a bit dismal so far. Wal-Mart fell almost 3 percent after rumors of a bid for BJ's swept the Street. Boeing fell 62 cents to $26.47 after saying it would take a $1.2 billion charge.

But Juniper added 68 cents to $9.09 after actually posting a profit. Nice to know that can still happen. Juniper's results helped propel Cisco up, on the theory that what is good for number two must be good for number one.

And Foundry, another networker, added $1.21 to $9.21 after saying it would beat estimates. (UBS maintains a "reduce" rating on Foundry, partly because of impending competition from Cisco.)

And -- whether it's reassuring or not -- GE still has its magic touch. Even though profits before taxes fell almost 9 percent, the stock moved wasn't hurt much, falling just 2 cents to $27.36 because GE was in line with estimates. (If you tell someone what they should think, is the result still an "estimate"?) What's even more amazing: Due to accounting changes and lower taxes, GE converted that 9 percent slip to a 20 percent gain. Wow!

Quintiles Transnational -- a member of that once-hot species that outsources clinical testing for the drug industry -- shot up $1.68 to $13.87 on news that it has agreed to be bought out by its founder and former chairman Dennis Gillings.

Oh, let's not forget AOL Time Warner, our very own parent company, which fell 35 cents to $12.30 on news that the public offering of its cable unit could be delayed until at least the fall.

WHAT'S NEXT? Is business spending weak due to war and war anxiety? Will the dollar flow forth when the war is over? What does "over" mean? Will the friction caused by Bush's approach weaken trade relationships? What will happen to the US dollar if foreigners decide to vote with their feet? Can the run in junk bonds -- up over 20 percent for the past six months, says Merrill -- possibly continue? Who replaces Saddam on the Iraqi currency?

As my colleague Peter Eavis notes, recent times haven't been kind to banks like Commerce Bank, which came close to hitting a 52-week low yesterday. (Today the stock fell 15 cents to $36.36.) But Commerce is so cool! They reimburse you for ATM fees incurred elsewhere. And when my friend Adele and I swung by her branch the other day, we came out with lollipops! When was the last time you got lollipops from your banks? But as Eavis notes, branches (unlike lollipops) don't come cheap....

From Solly's Tobias Levkovich: Do higher interest rates mean the death of equities? Not necessarily. He says that since 1915, stock prices have risen in 57 years, and during the majority of those years -- 36 -- rates have either risen or remained flat. It's all about earnings...

Reuters and the LA Times are reporting that Apple is talking to Vivendi about buying Universal Music for some $5 billion to $6 billion. It's past April Fools day -- but are you kidding?...

SARS + WAR = Merrill increasing its estimate for 2003 airline industry losses to $7.4 billion. Ouch.

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