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Big week ahead for tech
Is the outlook for tech improving? Microsoft, Intel, IBM and Nokia should provide some answers.
April 11, 2003: 6:01 PM EDT
By Paul R. La Monica, CNN/Money Senior Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Investors will get a clearer picture of the technology sector's health (or lack thereof) next week as four of the world's ten largest tech firms report earnings.

Microsoft, IBM, Intel and Nokia are all due up next week. And for good measure, Texas Instruments, Motorola, EMC and Sun Microsystems will be reporting their latest results as well.

The first-quarter numbers for tech should be relatively decent, with analysts expecting earnings growth of 10 percent for the sector, according to First Call.

But estimates have come down sharply since the beginning of the year, when analysts were forecasting 16 percent earnings growth. For the full year, analysts are predicting 27 percent earnings growth year-over-year, down from estimates of 37 percent at the beginning of the year.

The big question investors will have for all major tech companies is whether or not capital spending will pick up once the war in Iraq ends. Have companies really just been delaying spending due to political turmoil or is the still sluggish economy the real culprit?

If it's the latter, then full-year estimates might have to come down further, and that could lead to a big pullback in stock prices. The tech sector is up 1 percent year-to-date and is trading at 29 times 2003 earnings estimates.

Here's a rundown of the most anticipated reports:

Monday

IBM's report after the bell will be the most significant tech news of the day. Big Blue should do reasonably well. Analysts are predicting earnings growth of 8 percent from a year ago on a sales increase of 10 percent.

The company is one of the most diversified in technology, with a major presence in hardware, software and consulting services. So investors will likely scrutinize the results of each business segment for clues as to how individual sectors in technology are doing. Investors will be eager to hear about any changes in second-quarter guidance as well.

Big Blue on tap
Company EPS Est. Rev. Est. 
IBM $0.80 $19.9 billion 
Novellus Systems $0.07 $234.2 million 
 Source:  First Call

Semiconductor equipment firm Novellus Systems is also on tap for Monday. While it probably won't get as much attention as IBM, Novellus's results could be significant because it is the first chip equipment firm to report.

Chip equipment earnings tend to be a leading indicator of the health of the semiconductor sector. If companies like Novellus are doing well, that's a sign that semiconductor companies are starting to spend again. And that would be good news for makers of PCs, servers and other hardware.

Analysts expect Novellus to post a profit of 7 cents a share, compared to a loss of 2 cents per share last year.

Tuesday

It will be a busy afternoon. Both components of the so-called Wintel partnership, Microsoft and Intel, will report their latest quarterly results after the closing bell.

Intel already lowered its sales guidance for the quarter last month, blaming weak sales of flash memory chips, which are crucial components of cell phones. At the time, analysts attributed the shortfall to Intel's failed attempt to raise prices of flash chips.

Investors will also be looking for information about how Intel's widely hyped Centrino wireless chipset, which debuted last month, is doing. Analysts are predicting earnings of 12 cents a share on sales of $6.7 billion. However, Adam Parker, an analyst at Bernstein, wrote in a report on Friday that he expects Intel to give muted guidance for the second quarter.

Waiting for Wintel
Company EPS Est.  Rev. Est. 
Intel $0.12 $6.7 billion 
Microsoft $0.24 $7.7 billion 
Motorola $0.01 $6.1 billion 
Texas Instruments $0.06 $2.1 billion 
 Source:  First Call

It will be tough for Microsoft to top last quarter's bombshell announcement of a dividend and stock split. For this quarter, the fundamentals should be in the spotlight. Investors will be hoping to hear about more upgrades to Windows XP as well as positive news regarding PC unit growth in general.

Analysts expect Microsoft to post a slight decline in earnings for the quarter -- 24 cents a share compared with 25 cents a year ago -- but Microsoft has a history of beating estimates.

Microsoft's cash hoard will probably be scrutinized as well. The company had $43 billion as of the end of December. How much higher can it get? And will the company start making significant acquisitions with this dough?

And if these two reports aren't enough, Texas Instruments and Motorola are also reporting Tuesday afternoon. Their results will shed some light on the health of the telecom industry, particularly in wireless. TI is a major supplier of digital signal processors for cell phones while Motorola is the U.S.'s second largest manufacturer of handsets.

Wednesday

Intel's flash woes could be its rival Advanced Micro Device's gain, however. AMD reports after the closing bell and it is likely that AMD gained market share in flash memory during the first quarter. AMD should also have more details about a new flash memory company that it is forming with Fujitsu as well as its newest 64-bit processor, Opteron, which will be formally unveiled on April 22. Still, AMD is expected to report a loss of 49 cents a share in the quarter.

Hardware hogs the headlines
Company EPS Est. Rev. Est. 
Advanced Micro Devices -$0.49 $680.7 million 
Apple Computer $0.02 $1.5 billion 
EMC $0.01 $1.4 billion 
Sun Microsystems $0.00 $2.9 billion 
 Source:  First Call

EMC will report its earnings before the bell on Wednesday. The storage market appears to be recovering, which bodes well for the company. In fact, EMC raised its guidance for the quarter on Tuesday. Analysts are predicting a profit of a penny a share, compared to a loss of 4 cents a share last year.

Sun Microsystems has not had an easy time as of late, but the company has been busy introducing new products in the storage, security and server markets. Analysts are expecting the company to break even in the quarter.

And Apple, which according to a report in the Los Angeles Times on Friday is said to be interested in buying Universal Music from Vivendi, will be reporting Wednesday afternoon as well.

Thursday

Nokia, the Helsinki, Finland-based telecom equipment company will release its results early Thursday morning. The company issued a sales and earnings warning last month due to weaker-than-expected sales of high-end cell phones. And since then, the news has gotten worse.

On Monday, one of its suppliers, RF Micro Devices (RFMD: Research, Estimates) issued an earnings warning. And on Thursday, Nokia announced 1,800 layoffs in its struggling networking equipment unit. Analysts expect earnings to be unchanged from a year ago.

The view from Europe
Company EPS Est. Rev. Est 
Nokia $0.17 $7.0 billion 
SAP $0.13 $1.7 billion 
Xilinx $0.13 $291.9 million 
 Source:  First Call

Another European tech titan will report before the bell as well. German software company SAP is expected to post a 16 percent gain in sales from a year ago. However, rivals PeopleSoft (PSFT: Research, Estimates) and Siebel Systems (SEBL: Research, Estimates) issued earnings warnings last week, raising doubts about how strong SAP's quarter will be.

Finally, there will be more news about chips after the bell, as programmable logic chip manufacturer Xilinx is expected to report a slight increase in earnings. The company gave an upbeat sales outlook for the quarter last month.

The market is closed on Friday and there are no earnings reports scheduled. But there are certainly enough during the first four days of the week to give investors a clue about where the semiconductor and hardware markets might be heading for the rest of the year.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.