NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
For the past two years, tech investors have been like Mikey from the old Life cereal commercials -- they hated everything.
But first quarter results seem to be changing the market's mind. In an abbreviated trading week, the Nasdaq finished with a 4.9 percent gain as several tech heavyweights (including Microsoft and Intel) either met or beat expectations. Hey, Wall Street liked it! (For a debate about the health of the tech sector, click here.)
So will the good vibes continue in the coming week? It's going to be tough since telecom, the most troubled of the tech-related industries, is taking center stage.
All three Baby Bells report, as do the three major publicly traded wireless companies. Long distance providers AT&T and Sprint are on tap. And there will be several reports from key companies in telecom equipment -- Lucent, Nortel and Corning.
But it's not all about telecom. Tech investors will also get a look at results from two corporate software companies, Siebel Systems and PeopleSoft, and from two Internet bellwethers, eBay and Amazon.com.
Here is a preview of the most anticipated reports:
The Bells
Verizon will kick off the tolling of the Bells' earnings on Tuesday morning. BellSouth follows suit on Wednesday morning and SBC reports on Thursday before the opening bell.
Shares of the three companies have fallen sharply this year on concerns about slowing revenue growth in their core local service business. An unfavorable Federal Communications Commission ruling in February means that the Bells will still have to lease their lines to competitors, and at a discounted rate to boot.
All three companies are expected to report steep earnings declines from a year ago and Verizon is the only one that analysts think will show a year-over-year gain in revenues.
Because of the weak fundamentals, the Bells have been scaling back capital spending plans so it will be interesting to see whether any of them announce further cuts. If so, that could have a negative impact on the already struggling telecom equipment sector.
Investors will also be curious to see how the Bells' wireless units are doing. The proliferation of cell phone users has certainly cut into local services growth but wireless business has its own problems, namely intense price competition. Verizon co-owns Verizon Wireless with British firm Vodafone while BellSouth and SBC each own stakes in Cingular.
Wireless
Speaking of wireless, the three pure play wireless carriers -- Sprint PCS, AT&T Wireless and Nextel -- will all report next week. Another company with significant wireless exposure, Alltel, is also on the earnings schedule.
Sprint PCS will report its latest results on Monday after the closing bell. Of all the wireless carriers, Sprint appears to be struggling the most. Several of its affiliates, companies that resell its service, are in serious financial trouble. Sprint PCS is expected to report a loss of 13 cents a share for the first quarter and still has yet to report a quarter of positive cash flow.
AT&T Wireless and Nextel appear to be in much better shape. AT&T Wireless, which reports its results on Wednesday afternoon, is expected to post a profit of 2 cents a share. And Nextel has been doing extremely well due to its push-to-talk walkie talkie feature. The company is expected to report a 20 percent jump in revenues for the first quarter and a profit of 16 cents a share.
But Nextel's success will probably attract copycats. It will be interesting to see if Sprint PCS, AT&T Wireless and the Bells for that matter give any information about plans to introduce their own push-to-talk capabilities. If so, that could lead to even more brutal price competition in the industry.
Alltel, which focuses mainly on rural markets, offers various telecom services, including wireless. It has held up much better than other wireless carriers and the local phone companies. It will report its results on Thursday morning and is expected to show a 2.6 percent increase in earnings and 9.5 percent gain in sales.
Long distance
Nobody seems to be winning in telecom. The Bells are facing competition in the local service market from long distance companies like AT&T and Sprint. But the Bells are increasing their presence in the long distance market as well, making matters tougher for Ma Bell and Sprint.
|
| | Company | | EPS Est. | | Rev. Est. | | AT&T | $0.52 | $8.9 billion | | Sprint | $0.35 | $3.7 billion |
| | |
|
Although Sprint (which reports on Monday afternoon) and AT&T (scheduled to report on Wednesday morning) are expected to post earnings increases in the first quarter, sales are expected to decline sharply.
There is also growing concern that a slimmed down WorldCom could present some tough challenges to both companies when it emerges from bankruptcy later in the year.
Telecom equipment
Add up all the woes in local, wireless and long distance and it's no wonder that companies that sell networking equipment to telecom service providers are still struggling.
Fiber-optic cable maker Corning is expected to report its sixth consecutive quarterly loss on Tuesday afternoon. And it's even worse for networking equipment providers Nortel and Lucent.
Analysts are predicting a ninth consecutive quarterly loss for Nortel while Lucent is on track to post its tenth loss in a row. Lucent reports on Wednesday morning and Nortel's numbers come out on Thursday.
All three companies are continuing to cuts costs (i.e. layoffs) but barring good news from their customers, it's unlikely that any of these companies will be incredibly upbeat during their conference calls.
The one exception to the equipment malaise seems to be Qualcomm, which makes chipsets for handsets. The company is expected to post a more than 50 percent gain in sales and 80 percent increase in earnings, thanks to strong demand for chips in cell phones that use code division multiple access technology (CDMA), for which Qualcomm receives royalty revenue.
Still, a less-than-exciting forecast for cell phone shipments from Motorola, one of Qualcomm's biggest customers, could have an effect on the company's guidance.
The rest
Two non-telecom related areas that should be closely watched are business software and e-commerce.
In software, it will be interesting to see if Siebel Systems and PeopleSoft can surpass diminished expectations. The two companies, which compete with Oracle and SAP, both issued earnings warnings for the quarter earlier in the month. SAP reported earnings this past week and said that it gained market share on PeopleSoft and Siebel.
PeopleSoft will report its results on Tuesday afternoon and Siebel is scheduled to do so on Wednesday after the closing bell.
Internet leaders eBay and Amazon.com are expected to do exceedingly well. But investors will probably focus on valuation after the reports are released.
eBay, which reports on Tuesday, is expected to post a 72 percent increase in earnings and 86.5 percent jump in sales. Analysts are predicting a nearly 25 percent gain in sales for Amazon.com and a profit of 4 cents a share, compared to a loss last year. But both stocks are already up more than 30 percent this year.
|