NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Just one more week, and the bulk of first-quarter earnings will be behind us.

Which is sort of a shame, really, considering what a pleasant surprise results have been. Although heavy warnings activity heading into the reporting period had investors bracing for the worst, companies in the S&P 500 have so far beat analyst estimates by 6.8 percent, according to First Call research manager Joe Cooper. Typically, they come in 2.7 percent better.

"That's a large surprise factor," he said. "It's pretty encouraging."

Less encouraging, however, has been the guidance that companies are offering -- few are raising expectations substantially for the second quarter. Perhaps such conservatism is to be expected: Raising the bar now could get them in trouble later if business doesn't improve. But if companies lack faith in things getting better, they will likely continue to hold back on spending and hiring. Which doesn't bode well for the economy.

Companies in this report: McDonald's; Halliburton; Procter & Gamble; Exxon Mobil; Tyco; Disney.

Procter & Gamble is one of those rare birds that has actually made investors money during the past few years. Its steady sales and cost-cutting efforts have translated into double-digit earnings growth.

Investors are paying up P&G's performance -- its stock trades at 23 time last year's earnings. But it is unclear if the company can keep up its virile growth rate. You can't cost cut forever, after all. Moreover, if the economy gets better, investors may stray away from P&G's shares, opting instead for more cyclical companies that will show a bigger earnings boost.

Why it matters: Procter & Gamble is one of the biggest players in the consumer staples arena -- a class of companies that make products, like diapers, toothpaste and beer, that people buy no matter what. Though relatively unsung (Pampers ain't sexy), the staples sector was the best performer in the market last year. This year, as investors increasingly bet on recovery, it's the second-biggest loser. But if companies like P&G can find ways to keep boosting growth, staples could shine anew.

Result: Company reported that it earned 96 cents a share versus 84 cents a year ago, meeting First Call's consensus forecast.

Lately, McDonald's shareholders have been, um, grimacing.

Buffeted by a slumping global economy, lingering concerns -- particularly in Europe -- over mad cow disease, and an apparent shift in consumer tastes toward more healthful fare hurt the fast-food chain. Price cuts meant to boost sales have instead just cut into margins -- for the fourth quarter the company posted the first loss in its history. McDonald's shares have fallen more than 44 percent during the past year.

The company says it's in a turnaround. It's got a new CEO, Jim Cantalupo, who replaced Jack Greenberg in January, and its focus now is on cutting back poorly performing outlets and offering more alternatives to health-conscious customers. It is also reportedly mulling the sale of its Partner Brands unit, which includes Boston Market, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and Donatos Pizzeria.

Why it matters: During tough times one of the easiest places to cut back on is dining out -- raise your hand if you can remember your mom complaining that the family could be eating better hamburgers at home, and that they wouldn't cost as much. How McDonald's performed in the first quarter is a quick way to gauge how consumers feel about the economy. And the company's international sales will be a good way to see the extent of any backlash against American products from the war in Iraq.

First Call forecast: 28 cents a share versus 31 cents a year ago.

Here's a fun game. Ask around your office who the former CEO of Halliburton is. (Dick Cheney.) Now ask who the current CEO is. (David Lesar -- of course we didn't have to look that up.)

Anyway, Halliburton has lately pulled investors in two directions. On the one hand, the company is going to be a big beneficiary of the effort to bring Iraq's oil fields back on line. On the other, there is asbestos. The company says it has settlement agreements from plaintiffs representing over three-quarters of the asbestos-related claims against its DII Industries and Kellogg Brown & Root units, but it has yet to nail down a final settlement. As a result, Halliburton's shares trade at lower valuations relative to its peers.

While most news reports focus on what sorts of benefits Halliburton might be reaping from its old ties to Dick Cheney, what investors want to know about is how its proposed $4 billion asbestos settlement is coming. Given a strong indication that a final settlement is getting nailed down, Halliburton shares could hop higher.

Why it matters: Halliburton's fortunes ebb and wane with the fortunes of the energy industry. If it suggests that, beyond the Iraqi windfall, business is improving, it could indicate that energy companies' reluctance to invest in new exploration and infrastructure improvement has come to an end. Absent such investment, the supply of oil may have difficulty meeting mounting global demand, and energy prices could rise.

First Call forecast: 19 cents a share, unchanged from a year ago.

Everybody knows that Exxon Mobil had a big first quarter. Thanks to rising energy prices associated not just with the war with Iraq, but civil unrest in Venezuela and Nigeria, analysts think the company saw its earnings more than double.

What investors don't know is how long Exxon's good news is going to roll. Wall Street analysts expect oil prices to fall through the year, and they expect Exxon's profits will follow suit. But the analysts tend to undershoot on their oil estimates, and some observers feel that oil could stick at higher prices.

Why it matters: Exxon, the big gun of oil producers, is engaged in an odd sort of dance that affects the entire industry. Higher energy prices benefit it, as long as it can pass those prices through to customers. But if prices rise too much, the economy gets damaged, and demand slips.

First Call forecast: 70 cents a share versus 31 cents a year ago.

It's been nearly a year since Tyco, once a Wall Street darling, fell apart. Even after the ousting of former CEO Dennis Kozlowski and the hiring of the highly-respected Ed Breen, a cloud hangs over the company. Worries about what might yet be revealed about the company's past bookkeeping continue, as does concern about its heavy debt load.

Even beyond these concerns, some skeptics wonder if Tyco is worth its current price. Although it had a reputation for fast growth during the 1990s, its underlying businesses (things like fire and security services and electronics) hardly seem like growth areas. Absent the Kozlowski "magic," how much can this company grow?

Why it matters: They don't call Tyco "the next General Electric" anymore, but maybe the company is a better representative of how business in general is doing in America than GE is supposed to be. It doesn't have a big, murky financial division like GE does, or a big, ailing jet engine division. It's just got a collection of businesses that touch a lot of areas of the economy.

First Call forecast: 32 cents a share versus 48 cents a year ago.

Not much of anything good has happened for Disney lately. Terrorist fears (remember all those "code oranges"), along with worries about SARS, cut into its theme park business. The war with Iraq pushed viewers away from its ABC division -- the network's presentation of the Academy awards was the least-watched since records started being kept.

Investors want to know if the company sees any signs that the cloud hanging over it is clearing. One bright spot, as we move into the summer season, could be its movie business. It's got two features -- "Little Nemo" and "Pirates of the Caribbean," that are expected to take in more than $100 million at the domestic box office. Then again, betting on a good performance at the box can be a heck of a crap shoot -- even the closest industry watchers are often stymied by what's hot and what's not.

Why it matters: If you want a good gauge of how consumers feel, look no farther than Disney. When people start going to its theme parks, shopping at its stores, and flocking to its movies, you'll know the nation's mood has brightened.

First Call forecast: 11 cents a share versus 13 cents a year ago.