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Retail uptick? Maybe May
Lower gas prices, warmer weather and end of the war could bring shoppers out of hibernation.
May 8, 2003: 11:59 AM EDT
By Parija Bhatnagar, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - While U.S. retail sales have yet to break a prolonged downtrend induced by a weak economy and war woes, some industry experts hint that May sales could finally see a modest uptick.

"The two pluses that I see for retailers [are] lower fuel prices and consumer confidence getting a boost from the end of the war with Iraq," said Howard Davidowitz, chairman of retail consulting firm Davidowitz & Associates. "The end of the war is a psychological relief to consumers."

Meanwhile, retail chains, led by industry behemoth Wal-Mart, Thursday delivered a batch of soggy April sales reports.

"Today's numbers were anemic, overall," said Kurt Barnard, retail economist and president of Barnard's Retail Consulting Group.

"Until the unemployment picture improves, consumers will be very cautious about their spending habits. We think the second half of the year could also be difficult for the retail industry unless the job demand improves," Barnard said.

Wal-Mart misses in April

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT: up $0.14 to $55.22, Research, Estimates), the world's biggest retailer, reported a 4.6 percent gain Wednesday in April same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, up from 3.3 percent a year ago.

Wal-Mart said in late April that its same-store sales, likely would be "around" the low end of its expectations for a 5 to 7 percent gain, raising the possibility that it could come in slightly below 5 percent.

But the company said it sees May same-store sales up between 1 and 3 percent. The company added Wednesday that it expects first quarter earnings to be at the high end of its previously stated guidance of 40 to 42 cents per share.

"The tone is mostly negative for retail sales in April," said Todd Slater, retail analyst with Lazard Freres & Co. "Although Wal-Mart upped its earnings expectation, its comparable sales numbers have decelerated. That gives very little to cheer about."

Target Corp. (TGT: up $0.44 to $34.61, Research, Estimates) posted a 3.9 percent rise in April same-store sales. Total sales for the four weeks ended May 3 were up 11.3 percent to $3.19 billion from $2.87 billion a year earlier. But Target noted weak sales at its Mervyn's and Marshall Field stores in April.

Sears, Roebuck and Co. (S: down $0.11 to $27.89, Research, Estimates), the largest U.S. department store chain, reported its 20th straight monthly decline in sales at stores open at least a year. Sears' April same-store sales fell 8.5 percent in the four weeks ended May 3. Total sales for the period declined 8.0 percent to $1.99 billion from a year earlier.

J.C. Penney (JCP: down $0.08 to $17.52, Research, Estimates) also booked a decline of 6.9 percent for April sales at its department stores open at least a year.

Stellar sales at the Gap

Apparel retailer Gap Inc. (GPS: up $1.16 to $17.76, Research, Estimates) logged a 20 percent rise in April sales at stores open at least a year, driven largely by strong sales at its Old Navy and Banana Republic divisions. The company also said it expects a first quarter profit of 19 to 22 cents a share, compared with Wall Street's estimate of 11 cents.

Despite weak sales trends in the discount retail segment, wholesale warehouse retailers Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST: up $0.69 to $35.03, Research, Estimates) and BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ: unchanged at $15.70, Research, Estimates) showed some resilience.

Costco posted same-store sales up 6 percent, beating Wall Street's forecast of a 4.6 percent increase. BJ's Wholesale Club's April sales at stores open at least a year rose 4.8 percent, boosted by rising demand for gasoline and food. It also revised its first quarter profit outlook to a range of 15 to 17 cents a share from a prior estimate of 14 to 18 cents a share.  Top of page


-- Reuters contributed to this report.




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