NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Forget Dell, Cisco and all the other tech behemoths. The real winners of the latest bull run have been from the small tech arena.
For example, Dell Computer, Cisco Systems and Intel each are up in the low 20 percent range since March 11. But competitors Gateway, Juniper Networks and Advanced Micro Devices have surged 53 percent, 47 percent and 31 percent during the same time frame.
Overall, tech companies with a market value of $5 billion or greater have increased an average of 24 percent since March 11, according to Thomson/Baseline. But small cap techs, those with a market value below $1.5 billion, are up an average of 30 percent.
Small caps are supposed to outperform in economic recoveries -- the idea is that they have more room to grow than the big lumbering giants.
But this time around the opposite seems to be true.
The average estimated earnings increase for the large-cap techs in 2003 is 47 percent, compared with 41 percent for the smaller companies.
It makes sense that larger techs should have stronger fundamentals. Bigger companies have been able to streamline their operations, which was evident in many of the larger techs' first-quarter earnings, even though revenue growth is still sluggish at best.
"Cost cutting has improved operating margins, and earnings have come in above consensus. The strong companies are getting stronger," said Subodh Kumar, chief U.S. strategist for CIBC World Markets.
Stronger fundamentals should translate into higher valuations as well. But that's not the case either. The small-cap techs trade at an average of 51 times 2003 earnings while the large caps trade at a P/E ratio of 44.
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That could be a worrisome sign.
"The way some of these smaller stocks that have suddenly come to life and exploded might suggest that there's a bit of speculation left to be wrung out of the market," said Barry Ritholtz, chief market strategist for Maxim Group, a New York-based asset management firm.
Of course, this isn't to say that large-cap techs are screaming bargains either. But if there isn't a second-half recovery in IT spending, the smaller companies might be at more risk of a meltdown since they have enjoyed such strong gains already...the proverbial easy money.
"The low-hanging fruit has been picked on a lot of the small caps already, and when the low-hanging fruit has been picked, you have to be more defensive," said Ritholtz.
The smaller stocks also tend to be more volatile since they tend to have smaller share counts. So a sudden shift in momentum could hurt the smaller companies even more.
"It doesn't take a lot of money moving into these stocks to move them higher," said David Joy, capital markets strategist for American Express Financial Advisors. "But valuations will put a cap on how far things will go."
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