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Markets & Stocks
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Is Wall St. settling for "good enough?"
The stock rally has kept moving on just tepid economic news. Is the market nearsighted or visionary?
June 3, 2003: 2:52 PM EDT
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - For two and a half months now stocks have been climbing on hopes for an economic recovery without any hard proof that one's on the horizon. But for how much longer?

The Dow's flirting with 9,000 for the first time in ten months on bets that the second half will deliver, yet the readings on the economy have hardly been inspiring. In March and April, weak data were blamed on their proximity to the Iraq war. But it's June already and the May economic reports that have been released so far show that unemployment is still on the rise and manufacturing is still contracting.

The broader environment is certainly supportive of continued gains. Interest rates are low, a multi-billion dollar tax cut was just passed and the weakness in the dollar is supposed to be helping U.S. exports. Consumer confidence has largely held up and improved in the period following the Iraq war.

Is there a danger of exhaustion if the economic numbers don't eventually start to show the much-betted-on recovery? Not much, Wall Street watchers say, as long as the readings on the economy continue to show even the most modest of improvements.

"The market's been moving up more on momentum than fundamentals. As long as we continue to have incremental economic improvement, the market can hold these gains and even creep up a bit from here," John Forelli, portfolio Manager at Independence Investments wrote in a note to clients.

But, he cautioned, "we'll need the economic fundamentals set in place before we see the next big move up. If the economy starts to slip, the gains we've seen could be short-lived."

So far, the economy doesn't seem to be slipping, though it's hardly striding either. The May readings on the manufacturing sector seemed promising, but manufacturing is only responsible for roughly 15 percent of the economy. Prospects for other sectors remain ambiguous.

Labor picture remains murky

Friday's May unemployment report is expected to show continued weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.1 percent from 6 percent and employers cutting more jobs from their payrolls.

But Douglas Altabef, managing director at Matrix Asset Advisors, thinks the labor market's continued weakness won't come as a surprise to Wall Street and is unlikely to derail the rally alone. Altabef noted that the weekly jobless claims number hasn't moved much in 16 weeks and that doesn't seem to have impacted stocks.

Meanwhile, job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas released a report Tuesday that showed the number of job cuts announced by U.S. companies in May was at a 30-month low -- a positive sign for investors looking to find the silver lining and keep stocks going.

"The market couldn't care less what the economic reports are saying for May, or June, or July. Or, maybe they care for that one day [when] the report is released. But the market's looking out six months and it likes what it sees," said Jon Burnham, portfolio manager at Burnham Securities.

Still, this week's other economic reports are expected to show fairly tepid growth. Wednesday's May reading from the on the services sector of the economy is expected to show modest expansion, May retail sales and producer prices -- due next week -- are both expected to show slight gains, while that week's April figures, on business inventories and wholesale inventories, are expected to show only listless growth.

But tepid growth is good enough and stocks are likely to keep rising, as long as the numbers don't come in shockingly disappointing.

"You're seeing very little economic data that's strong, but you are seeing a little and that's what the market has been focusing on," said Timothy Ghriskey, president at Ghriskey Capital Partners. "It's a matter of whether you believe a rebound is coming or not. The market seems to be telling us that it is."  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.