NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Intel Corp. narrowed its sales forecast for the second quarter Thursday but held the midpoint of its sales range steady, leading industry analysts to question whether the stock can build on its recent stellar run.
The world's biggest chipmaker said it expects sales of $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion, versus the $6.4 billion to $7 billion it had forecast for the quarter in April.
According to First Call, analysts are erring on the side of caution with a consensus of $6.6 billion, below the $6.7 billion midpoint of Intel's guidance. Intel reported sales of $6.3 billion in last year's second quarter.
Intel's stock gained 46 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $21.84 in regular trading and initially sank in after-hours trading but later recovered to hold its earlier gains, according to Island ECN.
High hopes for chips
Chipmakers have been among the best performing stocks in recent months, with Intel (INTC: Research, Estimates) up 38 percent since mid-March and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks 17 chip and chip equipment firms, up 42 percent.
So even though Intel's guidance was not disappointing, it may be tougher for the stock to keep rising unless the fundamentals improve. "A lot of the good news is already baked into the share price. We'd be on the sidelines and wouldn't put fresh money into Intel," said Eric Rothdeutsch, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey.
Intel said that demand in its core business of selling microprocessors and chipsets to computer manufacturers was at the high end of expectations. Intel launched its widely hyped Centrino chip for wireless notebooks in mid-March.
Intel CFO Andy Bryant did not give any specifics about Centrino's sales during a conference call, except to say that the company was satisfied with business so far. But analysts said that sales have been strong.
Demand for communication chips remains soft, however. Intel has been losing market share to rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD: up $0.01 to $7.02, Research, Estimates) in one area of communication chips, flash memory. Flash chips are crucial components of cell phones and other wireless devices that help save data when the devices are turned off.
Bryant downplayed another concern that some investors and analysts had about Intel: the effect that the SARS outbreak in Asia might have on sales. "SARS was recognized as a potential major event in April," Bryant said. Nearly 40 percent of Intel's first quarter sales came from the Asia-Pacific region.
The company said that other forecasts are unchanged, which means that Intel should be on track to post gross margins, which measures how profitable a company is after subtracting the cost of sales, of 50 percent in the second quarter. The company does not give earnings guidance. Analysts are expecting Intel to report a profit of 13 cents a share, versus 9 cents a share a year earlier.
Michael McConnell at Pacific Crest Securities said the stock will probably take a hit Friday because the company didn't raise guidance. He said that Intel needed to raise its gross margins target for the stock to head higher.
But there will still be some sense of mystery when Intel actually reports its second-quarter results July 15. It's tough for Intel to be terribly specific about its sales outlook for the quarter because a big portion of sales for the quarter -- about 44 percent -- typically come in June, according to Bernstein analyst Adam Parker.
June in particular is usually a big month for Intel. That's when the company starts to sell the bulk of the chips that PC makers will use in machines shipped toward the end of the summer for the back-to-school shopping season, Parker said. The chance exists that Intel could wind up beating sales expectations.
Analysts quoted in this story do not own Intel and their firms do not have investment banking relationships with the company.
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