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Markets & Stocks
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Bubbleology
Wall Street goofed on the last bubble. Now it sees new ones forming everywhere.
June 24, 2003: 4:58 PM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Wall Street is abuzz with chatter about the next bubble. But there's no agreement on where the bubble is.

There is, we are told, a bubble in the Treasury market. There's a bubble in housing. The bubble in stocks is being reflated. There's a bubble in convertible bond issuance, in junk bonds, in the mortgage market.

bubbles

"Everything is in a bubble," said Brad Ruderman, managing partner at the Beverly Hills, Calif.-based hedge fund Ruderman Capital Partners. "Everybody that missed the stock market bubble is intent on identifying, or even labeling, the next one."

Indeed, talk of bubbles seems to be bubbling over compared to 1999 and early 2000, when the excesses in the stock market were getting truly out of hand. A news search of five top financial publications -- Fortune, The Economist, Business Week, the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal -- returns 53 articles that mention a stock market bubble in the year ended Mar. 10, 2000, the day the Nasdaq peaked. Three articles mentioned a bond market bubble and 19 mentioned a housing bubble.

In contrast, during the past year there were 489 mentions of a stock market bubble, 16 of a bond bubble, and 137 mentions of a real estate bubble.

Turn off the bubble machine

Although it gets the least play in the press, the bubble that stock market types seem to be talking about the most lately is bonds. Treasurys have rallied so hard that the yield on the 10-year, at 3.3 percent, has reached its lowest level since 1958.

"You've got a bubble in bonds," said Larry Rice, vice president at Janney Montgomery Scott. "There is a panic to buy debt just like there was a panic to buy stocks in 1999."

But bond market participants, while they concede that the move in bonds may be overdone, blanch at the bubble talk.

"Let's think back to what happened in Internet stocks," said Morgan Stanley economist Bill Sullivan. "That was a bubble where there was a complete evisceration of wealth. That will never happen in the Treasury market, because it is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States."

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Indeed if you buy the 10-year Treasury today, you may discover over time that you could have got much better returns elsewhere, but still at the end of 10 years you'll get your principal, plus interest, back.

Sullivan thinks that many investors are using talk of a bubble simply to justify their positions. When somebody says that bonds are a bubble because the economy is going to improve and interest rates are going up, for instance, they're also envisioning an environment that's favorable to stocks.

Meanwhile, bond investors are showing unusual levels of bearishness, which seems the antithesis of what bubbles are all about. Merrill Lynch chief U.S. equity strategist Rich Bernstein points out that recent surveys show that bond portfolio managers are putting a historically outsized portion of their money, relative to their benchmarks, into shorter term debt.

"That is akin to saying that during the tech bubble fund managers were underweight tech in their portfolios," he said. "How can there be a bubble in bonds when the bond market is historically bearish?"

But then Bernstein thinks the bubble in the stock market is reflating, and the idea of a bond bubble is anathema to that point of view.

Tiny bubbles ...

Housing appears to be the business press's favorite bubble, which may have something to do with how many reporters are paying exorbitant rents for New York efficiencies with no hope of ever being able to afford a place of their own. There's even a book out called "The Coming Crash in the Housing Market : 10 Things You Can Do Now to Protect Your Most Valuable Investment."

If housing is in a bubble, it will go down as the most well-anticipated financial bubble in history.

For more on housing, click here

"There are people getting on TV almost daily talking about the housing bubble," said Ruderman. "But every home that's getting built, people are moving into right away. Is that a bubble?"

Indeed, there is something comforting about all the bubble chatter, whether it is in stocks, bonds or housing. It suggests an investing climate that has become a great deal warier, and thus much less prone to problems. But there's a danger here, too. The word "bubble" is getting thrown around so much that it's beginning to seem like just another way of saying overvalued. Pretty soon people might start forgetting exactly how disastrous bubbles can be.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.