NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Rising mortgage rates are to housing what Kryptonite is to Superman: the one thing capable of zapping the sector's super-sized strength.

Somewhat surprising then that five of the nation's top housing economists, who on Wednesday spoke at a conference sponsored by the National Homeownership Alliance, aren't worried about the recent rise in mortgage rates.

Dave Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders, says that though he sees some deceleration in new home sales, they were so strong in the first half of the year that they are still on track for a record in 2003.

The consensus view seems to be that demand will remain strong enough to boost home prices on average by 6 percent this year and by 5 percent in 2004. Not quite as much as the 7 percent gain of 2002, but still pretty nice gains for people who already own their own homes.

One big reason the experts don't expect rising mortgage rates to stop the housing market dead in its tracks is that they don't see rates moving much higher.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, as tracked by mortgage lending giant Freddie Mac, jumped up to 5.4 percent last week from a record low of 5.21 percent. But Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft says he thinks the rate will top out at 5.5 percent this year.

Economists at the Mortgage Bankers Association see the 30-year rate rising possibly as high as 5.7 percent this year and hitting 6.1 to 6.2 percent in 2004.

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But that's still much better than a year ago when the rate was around 6.5 percent or two years ago when it was at about 7.2 percent or three years when it was up above 8 percent!

There's another reason for optimism. One reason for higher rates would be the economy shifting into a higher gear, bringing with it jobs growth. So even if homebuyers are faced with higher monthly mortgage payments, they will be boosted by the added confidence -- if not the added paycheck -- that goes with a stronger labor market.

And though refinancing activity is pulling back, it's still well above historical levels. "The refinancing activity will start to trail off but it will carry into the first half of next year," said Doug Duncan, another MBA economist, who was not at Wednesday's meeting but joined me for an interview on CNN/Money Morning (which I anchor at 8:30 a.m. Monday through Friday).

• If you are a homeowner, the experts say don't think a second more about refinancing your mortgage, do it now! Don't gamble on rates moving lower again.
• If you are a potential homebuyer, don't despair. Rates may keep moving a bit higher, but unless the economy starts roaring unexpectedly, you will still be able to take advantage of attractively low 30-year rates. And, adjustable rate mortgages should stay low because the Fed isn't expected to even think about raising short-term rates till next year at the earliest.
• For investors watching the macroeconomic forces, don't count anymore on the housing sector. Economists say that if housing plateaus at its current healthy level, that means it is no longer adding anything to the economy's growth rate and that means there will be more burden on retail sales and business spending to keep the recovery going.

But in some ways that's a good thing. The record low mortgage rates that helped fuel the housing boom were a symptom of a sick and potentially deflationary economy. If rates continue to move higher that will be a welcome sign that the economy is truly on the mend.

Kathleen Hays anchors The FlipSide, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn. As part of CNN's Business News team, she is also a regular contributor to Lou Dobbs Moneyline.