PALO ALTO, Calif. (CNN/Money) - A maxim of the long view of markets is that the leaders of one bullish era rarely lead the next one. Well, here's a contrarian opinion: In the short term, a bet on a downtrodden leader is among the safest you can make.

Take Seagate Technology (STX: Research, Estimates), the world's biggest maker of computer disk drives. Earlier this year, when I was researching an article on Seagate's largest shareholder, Silver Lake Partners, there was a good deal of grousing that Seagate's stock price was below its mid-December IPO price of $12.

Partners at Silver Lake, a big tech buyout fund with offices in Silicon Valley and New York, were downright defensive when the shares traded at $11. Because they made a bundle in the IPO, they needed the stock to be higher for their credibility with institutional buyers of Seagate stock (not to mention their own future riches).

Now we know Seagate was a lurking leader. At $20, the shares of this boring near-industrial company (disk drives are the ultimate technology commodity) have more than doubled off their low. And what do you know -- Silver Lake has decided to sell more shares.

Don't be fooled by the innocuous wording in Seagate's recent news release that "the company's parent" is selling 60 million shares in a secondary stock offering. That "parent" is Silver Lake and its investment partners. Their announcement coincided with Seagate's disclosure that its business is better than it had previously believed.

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Does that mean this is a bad time to buy Seagate? Well, Silver Lake and its co-investors will retain a sizable chunk of the company, so their interest continues be a higher stock price. Looking backward, the best time to have bought was when Seagate was a fallen leader. Now it's a risen leader at twice the price.

Then there's Microsoft (MSFT: Research, Estimates). I opined in early June that it might be a good time to buy Microsoft. It's up 11 percent since, compared with a 9 percent gain on the Nasdaq. If you're a trader, you just made a double-digit pop on a company who fastest growth is behind it. Good job.

What about the predictable hooey over Microsoft's axing stock options? I've been amazed by the prognostications, especially in the Wall Street Journal, that Microsoft will now have a tough time attracting entrepreneurially minded executives and other employees.

Hello? Did anyone notice that more and more people are out of work? Has the past three years taught us nothing if not that most -- not all, but most -- people want a secure job with a high-quality company that offers exciting opportunities and a fair wage far more than they want the long shot of becoming a millionaire?

Companies like Intel and Oracle -- leaders both, by the way -- say there isn't a chance in hell they'll follow Microsoft. They're kidding themselves. Their growth is likely to be as slow as Mr. Softee's. That's one reason Larry Ellison feels compelled to attempt his first ever large-scale acquisition -- to buy customers he can't win with new products.

So is there opportunity in Microsoft? Probably not the shoot-for-the-moon kind. But it's a leader, and it's acting like one. And leadership matters.

Adam Lashinsky is a senior writer for Fortune magazine. Send e-mail to Adam at lashinskysbottomline@yahoo.com.

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