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Commentary > Bid and Ask
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Bonds and stocks together again
Recent action suggests that, after a four-year hiatus, Treasurys and stocks are relinking.
July 30, 2003: 11:33 AM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Over the past few years, the stock and Treasury markets have been at loggerheads. When investors felt good about the economy, share prices went up and bonds headed down. But when greed gave way to fear they rushed right out of stocks into the safety of bonds.

It's made it hard to remember that for years and years stocks and Treasurys ran hand in hand with one another.

The inflationary 1970s were bad for the Treasury and stock market alike. But as disinflation began to take hold in the early 80s, Treasurys began to rally -- pushing their yields ever lower -- and stocks followed shortly after. It was happy times for both markets until 1999, when the Treasurys ran into trouble, but stocks just kept heading higher.

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Justin Lahart, senior writer at CNN/Money, talks about the relinking of Treasury markets and stocks.

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Bond investors, it seemed were worried that the economy was getting overheated, but equity investors thought that was nonsense. The Lehman Brothers Long-term Treasury index dropped 8.7 percent and the S&P 500 added 19.5 percent. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq jumped 85.6 percent.

Not paying attention to the Treasury market was something that equity investors would pay dearly for. In 2000 the stock market cracked, and money rushed into bonds.

But now, after so many years in each other's doghouse, the bond and stock markets may be in the process of relinking. The sharp selloff in Treasurys that began in June is beginning to wear at stock investors nerves. On both Monday and Tuesday, both markets fell. Yes, the drop in Treasurys suggests a recovering economy, but the attendant rise in interest rates may, investors worry, sap the recovery's strength.

Meanwhile, higher yields are making the Treasury market more attractive, and some investors may begin to shift some assets out of stocks to take advantage of that.

The upshot? It may be that the stock market will make no significant headway, and may even fall, until the Treasury market stabilizes.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.