NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Cisco Systems, the leading manufacturer of computer networking gear, reported cautious optimism about its future sales, along with fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and sales that met Wall Street estimates.
But its failure to beat those estimates, along with an outlook too timid for some tastes, sent Cisco shares down to $17.10 in after-hours trading on the Instinet ECN, according to Reuters, from Tuesday's close of $18.86, a drop of about six percent.
In a conference call to discuss the quarterly results and the company's outlook for its fiscal first quarter, CEO John Chambers and CFO Dennis Powell said they expected revenue growth of two to four percent in the upcoming quarter.
The sales resulting from such growth would be $4.79 billion to $4.88 billion, roughly in line with Wall Street's consensus expectations of $4.8 billion, according to earnings tracker First Call.
Though the sales growth was described as "slight," the first quarter is typically a slow quarter for Cisco, and Chambers said he saw strength in sales to small and mid-sized businesses, which he thinks could be the first stage in a long-awaited recovery from a slump in its customers' confidence and the prospects for business investment in its products.
"For the first time in a very long time, I believe the external factors are slowly starting to be more positive," Chambers said. "This is still a minority view, held by a minority of our customers, but we've seen early indications that the recovery could be gaining momentum."
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But stronger growth in sales to larger industries and service providers will take longer to develop, Chambers warned, and he pointed out that analysts have predicted a broader economic recovery -- critical to Cisco's business -- more than once in the past two years, only to be disappointed.
"Momentum is a little fragile, and when people got excited before, they were disappointed," Chambers said. "But this is the most positive guidance we've given in eight quarters, going into a seasonally challenging quarter."
Cisco (CSCO: Research, Estimates) shares lost 40 cents, or about 2 percent, in regular-session trading on Tuesday. They have gained nearly 30 percent this year on hopes for a recovery in technology spending during the second half of the year.
"The guidance, although somewhat more optimistic than it has been, didn't really hit a home run," said Michael Davies, analyst with Caris & Co., who personally owns shares of Cisco, though his firm has no relationship with the company. "On the other hand, I think two-to-four-percent growth is good. I was hoping for better, but I think we're finally hitting bottom here."
Quarter in line with forecasts
The San Jose, Calif.-based company reported fourth-quarter net income of $982 million, or 14 cents a share, according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), compared with earnings of $772 million, or 10 cents a share, a year ago.
On a pro forma basis, which excludes stock-based compensation expenses and amortization of assets due to acquisitions, the company posted earnings of 15 cents a share, compared with analysts' expectations of 15 cents, according to earnings tracking firm First Call. Cisco reported pro forma earnings of 14 cents a share in last year's fourth quarter.
Sales came in at $4.7 billion for the quarter ended last month, in line with expectations, and down slightly from revenue of $4.8 billion a year ago.
Cisco said its net sales for full-year fiscal 2003 were $18.9 billion, compared with $18.9 billion for fiscal 2002.
Net income for fiscal 2003, on a GAAP basis, was $3.6 billion or 50 cents a share, compared with $1.9 billion, or 25 cents a share, in the prior year. Pro forma net income for fiscal 2003 was $4.3 billion, or 59 cents a share, compared with pro forma net income of $2.9 billion, or 39 cents a share, for fiscal 2002.
Cisco said it ended the year with $20.7 billion in cash and assets on hand.
Operating cash flow in the fourth quarter was $1.55 billion, compared with $1.61 billion a year ago. Cash flow for the full year was $5.24 billion, compared with $6.59 billion for fiscal 2002.
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