NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - In 2001, Major League Baseball owners threatened to close two teams through contraction. The threat proved to be more bluster and labor negotiating strategy than reality.
Today the National Hockey League Commissioner Gary Bettman says his troubled league isn't even considering reducing the number of teams through contraction.
Don't believe that, either.
The league, whose status as a major sport has more holes in it than a defenseman's smile, starts the season this week under the cloud of a threatened lockout of players a year from now that could wipe out much if not all of next year's season. No wonder. The league lost a combined $300 million last year, according to Betteman.
Still, when asked about the chance of contraction in his pre-season conference call last week, Bettman responded simply "none." But that does not assure the future viability of the 30 current franchises, league Executive Vice President Bill Daly told me this week.
"Contraction is a plan to buy back franchises and essentially put them out of business. We have no interest in contraction as a strategic matter or a bargaining strategy," Daly said. "We believe 30 franchises can be healthy given the economic right system. The bottom line is if we don't get the right system, we are at risk of losing franchises."
But finding that "right system" will be tough given player salaries that have more than tripled since 1993, and a revenue stream that shows little opportunity for growth. The league will need to see the steepest cuts in player salaries ever won at a union negotiating table to turn around its economics.
The union, which has vowed not to strike, says it's offering revenue sharing and luxury tax proposals to address the ownership's economic concerns, so far with little success.
"Given what we saw at meeting last week, owners didn't give us a lot of cause for optimism (that a lockout can be avoided,)" said NHL Players Association Senior Director Ted Saskin. "Their only response was to insist on an NFL hard cap type of system. We're not prepared to accept that."
Some of the people who have been kicking the Zamboni tires during the last few months say they think many of the teams are at risk due to the near certainty of a lockout next year.
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"A third of the franchises are at risk of not coming back," said an adviser to a potential buyer who looked at bidding on three different teams this off-season before deciding to stay on the sidelines. "They're struggling to be noticed and taken seriously. You're going to lose fans, lose sponsors."
This adviser, who asked not to be named, said he's not surprised that Bettman is downplaying the chance of contraction even though baseball Commissioner Bud Selig rattled that sabre with some effectiveness before winning a far more favorable labor pact from his union last year.
"The product is sufficiently tenuous that he has to say that," said the adviser. "He's got a number of weak teams whose fans would become angry if he said he's looking at contraction. He can't say to ESPN or Turner Sports that the footprint of teams might shrink by 15 or 20 percent."
The league finds itself in the difficult position of trying to negotiate a new U.S. television deal this year while the dark clouds of labor negotiations hang over it. The current five-year deal with Walt Disney Co.'s ESPN and ABC networks gives about $120 million a year. This time it is widely accepted the rights fee money will decline.
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About half the teams either left ticket prices unchanged or cut prices this season, and the high-priced luxury suites and club seating saw average prices decrease league wide, according to Team Marketing Report. Since the league already sold out 91 percent of its available regular revenue season tickets last year, there isn't much room for increasing gate revenue without ticket price increases.
"There's just not enough revenue to share," said one investment banker involved in talks about possible sales of several teams. "There are only a couple of teams that make money and that's not very much."
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