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Markets & Stocks
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Back to the future
In the week ahead, investors will begin to get a sense of how the fourth quarter is shaping up.
October 31, 2003: 5:41 PM EST
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Blistering, scorching, smoking. Pick your adjective, the third quarter defied what anybody expected.

Gross domestic product grew at a 7.2 percent pace, its fastest clip since 1984. With the bulk of earnings reports behind us, S&P 500 profits look like they grew by at least 21 percent over last year -- the best growth since 2000.

But the third quarter was over and done with a month ago, and even before we had a clear idea of just how good it was going to be, bearish sorts were grousing that it was going to be little more than a flash in the pan. All that cash households raised refinancing their mortgages in the spring and summer, that money the government sent out in July -- it's been tapped.

Even before the third quarter came to a close, it appears that the mighty U.S. consumer was losing strength. Just-in personal spending figures for September show that consumption fell for the first time since February. Weekly chain store sales reports suggest that October, too, may be on the soft side.

This slowing is not necessarily a bad thing, however -- the recent pace of consumer spending was clearly unsustainable.

"The consumer is not about to die on us, but let's face it, it's time for them to give a little slack to the business sector," said Bank One economist Diane Swonk.

The question, then, is whether the business sector is going to be willing and able to pick up the rope and start hauling.

To some extent, this has begun happening already -- one of the contributing factors to that third-quarter growth spurt was a pick-up in capital spending. That needs to continue and, more important, companies need to do the one thing that will ensure sustainable recovery: start hiring back workers.

"The missing link is jobs," said Bill Sterling, chief investment officer at Trilogy Advisors. "But I would guess the odds are 70 or 80 percent that we're going to see strong job growth in the next few months."

The job growth may even have already begun. Next Friday brings the October employment report, and it may be stronger than investors expect. (Click here for all of the coming week's key events). Sentiment measures suggest that the labor market is improving. And it makes sense that companies, after putting a lid on a stellar third quarter, might have rekindled hiring plans.

The fly in the ointment? Swonk points out that there were 70,000 grocery workers on strike in southern California when the Bureau of Labor Statistics took the survey for the October jobs report. That, along with the demobilization of several thousand reservists, could skew things.

For the stock market, even kind economic reports might not be enough to juice things along. Even unexpectedly good news, like that big third-quarter GDP report on Thursday, have done little to move the market, suggesting that investors are as fully invested as they're going to get -- at least for now.

"We had a bucketful of good news, but it was already reflected in stock prices," said Credit Suisse Asset Management managing director Stan Nabi. "The market is going to lay back for a bit."

Nabi doesn't expect to see much of a decline, if there is one at all, however. Only a sharp bump up in interest rates could spark that, he said, and right now that isn't in the cards. Rather, the market will probably sit tight through November as evidence accumulates that the economy continues to recover. Come the end of the month, investors should be ready to take prices higher again.

Key events in the week ahead

  • Auto companies report October car and truck sales on Monday. Economists expect they'll hold fairly steady with September's pace.
  • The Institute for Supply Management reports its purchasing managers' index for October on Monday. According to Briefing.com, it's expected to tick up to 55.8 from September's level of 53.7. Anything over 50 signals expansion in the manufacturing sector.
  • September construction spending, also due out Monday, is expected to show 0.2 percent growth -- even with August's pace.
  • The Institute for Supply Management's services index for October, due up Wednesday, is expected to slip to 62 from September's 63.3.
  • September factory orders, also due Wednesday, are expected to show a rise of 0.6 percent, bouncing back from a decline of 0.8 percent in August.
  • The jobs report, slated for Friday, is expected to show that the economy added 50,000 jobs in October, against a 57,000 gain in September. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 6.1 percent.
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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.