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Consumer prices flat
Closely watched measure of consumer inflation in October falls short of Wall Street estimates.
November 18, 2003: 10:19 AM EST
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. consumer prices were flat in October, the government said Tuesday, missing Wall Street expectations for a slight gain, in a report that seemed unlikely to force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than expected.

The Labor Department reported that the consumer price index (CPI), a broad measure of prices paid by consumers, was flat in October after rising 0.3 percent in September. Economists, on average, expected CPI to rise 0.1 percent, according to Briefing.com.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called "core" CPI, rose 0.2 percent, after rising 0.1 percent in September. Economists expected core CPI to rise 0.1 percent, according to Briefing.com.

While the "headline" CPI number was buffeted by the competing forces of a plunge in energy costs and a jump in beef costs related to a ban on Canadian beef, several "core" costs -- including housing, clothing, medical care and education -- posted strong gains.

The report seemed unlikely to settle the debate between those observers who adhere to the Fed's belief that stronger inflation is a distant threat to the economy and those who argue that consumers arefeeling the pinch of everyday costs.

"There is no inflation, as long as you are buying computers and motor vehicles, but for everyone else, the situation is not that pleasant," said Joel Naroff, president and chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa.

U.S. stock prices had little reaction to the report, posting modest gains in early trading. Treasury bond prices fell.

In the past 12 months, CPI has risen 2.0 percent, a fairly anemic rate, while core CPI has risen 1.3 percent, just one-tenth of a percentage point above the 37-year low set in September. In comparison, the Labor Department's producer price index for finished goods has risen 3.4 percent.

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Driven in part by a fear that such a disconnect between business and consumer prices could pinch corporate profits and hurt the economy, Fed policy makers have kept their key short-term interest rate at lows not seen since the Kennedy administration, and most economists don't expect them to start raising that rate until at least March of 2004, if not later.

"We're not pricing in rate hikes any time soon, and today's data won't change that," said former Fed economist Lara Rhame, now senior economist with Brown Brothers Harriman. "Inflation is off the radar screen for policy makers."

In October, energy costs plunged 3.9 percent after rising 3 percent in September. Still, in the past 12 months, energy costs are up 8.8 percent, the fastest-growing component of the CPI.

Transportation prices fell 1.6 percent after rising 0.9 percent in September, driven by a 6.8 percent drop in gasoline prices. Gas prices rose 6.3 percent in September.

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New-car prices fell 0.3 percent after falling 0.4 percent in September. Used-car prices shrank even more, falling 3 percent after September's 3.1 percent drop.

"Information and information processing equipment" prices fell 0.3 percent, matching September's decline.

These declines were offset by a 0.6 percent jump in food prices, a 0.3 percent gain in housing prices and a 0.2 percent gain in apparel prices.

The housing-price gains were impacted by a 2.3 percent jump in the price of travel lodging, compared with a 0.3 percent drop in September.

Food-price gains were driven by a recent surge in the price of beef, which jumped 3.8 percent, its biggest gain since 5.6 percent in February 1979.

Medical costs rose 0.3 percent and have risen 3.7 percent in the past 12 months, making health care the second-fastest-growing component of the CPI.

Education costs rose 0.4 percent, following September's 0.6 percent gain.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.