NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The cost of your favorite cotton pajamas, T-shirts or linen may not shoot through the roof anytime soon.

But analysts are keeping a close watch on the recent spike in raw cotton prices, the new import quotas on Chinese textiles and their impact on apparel prices down the road.

The cash price of raw cotton is at a five-year high, up 50 percent since May and trading at 72 cents a pound on the New York Board of Trade.

"Much of the run-up this year has to do with a smaller-than-expected crop in China due to excessive rains," said Daniel Basse, commodities trader with AgResource.

China is the world's biggest producer of raw cotton and the second-largest exporter of cotton clothing to the United States, after Mexico, according to the latest Department of Agriculture data.

J.P. Morgan analyst Brian Tunick said in a note Wednesday that higher cotton prices are likely to "raise production costs for manufacturers of cotton apparel and household textiles." But much of that may not get passed on to consumers, he said, adding "it may not even be visible at all in prices at the retail level."

That's because manufacturers, and retailers, are often forced to absorb price increases instead of passing them on to the consumer. Still, Tunick said that if the U.S. decides to expand the import quotas to include more Chinese apparel products, that could move retail prices higher.

Other analysts also cautioned that a rise in clothing prices could be coming.

Richard Hastings, chief retail analyst with Bernard Sands, cited trade tensions as one reason clothing and footwear prices will rise. He said prices could jump as much as 4 percent, starting a year from now.

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"If trade relations between the United States and China begin to deteriorate, and the dollar declines in a disorderly manner, then a minor thing such as raw cotton prices could become very important," Hastings said.

The Bush administration said Tuesday it will slap new import quotas on some Chinese clothing in a bid to protect American exporters and American jobs. The administration contends that China is not living up to trade agreements with the United States.

That could set the stage for a broader trade fight with the Chinese.

"China could choose to retaliate against yesterday's announcement by hiking up prices on a key export to the U.S. or suspending purchase of certain commodities from the U.S," Hastings said.

In Beijing, Chinese officials denounced the textile tariffs and scrapped missions to buy American farm goods, saying the U.S. measure sullied the spirit of free trade.

"The Chinese government expresses deep regret and firmly opposes this decision," Commerce Ministry spokesman Chong Quan said in a statement, adding China may take the dispute to the World Trade Organization.

Meanwhile, the dollar, which has been falling against other major currencies in part because of trade tensions, could make clothing imports from countries other than China more expensive.

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"The fact that the Chinese currency is pegged to the dollar helps eliminate the inflationary effect on goods from China," Hastings said. "The U.S., however, doesn't see that benefit from its other trading partners."

Some executives in the import and export business said it could be some time, however, before prices for clothing start rising.

Hong Kong-based trading group Li & Fung, one of the biggest sources of apparel, home products and toys for big U.S. department store chains, said it does not anticipate price inflation on exported goods.

"If anything, we think prices will deflate over the next 12 to 18 months. After that it become a bit fuzzy," said Rick Darling, president of Li & Fung USA.

Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, said it would not comment on whether the new quotas or higher cotton prices will impact clothing prices at its stores. Discounter Target (TGT: Research, Estimates) did not immediately return calls for comment.

"At the end of the day, if the quotas stick, the bottom line is that consumers will be paying more for some clothing items by next year," said Howard Davidowitz, chairman of retail consulting firm Davidowitz & Associates.