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Follow the leaders
Stocks that lead a recovery are often strong performers throughout a bull market.
December 3, 2003: 11:37 AM EST
By Michael Sivy, CNN/Money contributing columnist

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - When a recovery finally begins after a long bear market, there are always elite groups of stocks that take the lead.

Looking at the stocks that have been top performers since the market took off earlier this year, we see some interesting trends. Among the leaders are the great tech names: Intel, Cisco, Applied Materials and Texas Instruments.

Banks and financial services companies are well-represented, too, including J.P. Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and American Express.


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So are a few high-quality cyclicals, such as Alcoa. In addition, the top slots include media and consumer stocks, such as Nike, Disney and Home Depot.

What conclusions can we draw from this list? Technology is coming back strong, while drug stocks are conspicuous by their absence. The market is also signaling continued strong consumer spending (and the consumer banking that goes with it).

In short, we're looking at a solid, consumer-driven recovery, in which drug stocks may be laggards but tech is bouncing back right away.

It stands to reason that top techs and great consumer brands should be well-represented in your portfolio. But should you buy them now? While those stocks are good long-term holdings, they are also the most vulnerable to a pullback after their recent runups.

To find interesting buys, I screened a universe of large, high-quality stocks looking for those that are up more than 40 percent from the bottom but still seem reasonably priced relative to their projected growth rates.

Here are three:

First Data

First Data provides a variety of financial information services, including money transfer through Western Union and credit- and debit-card transaction processing. The company also own 64 percent of the NYCE ATM system.

First Data (FDC: Research, Estimates) is a fairly direct play on consumer spending and has opportunities to expand overseas, particularly in developing economies. The company's money-transfer businesses, already strong in Latin America, could grow rapidly in China, India and Eastern Europe.

Earnings are projected to grow 15 percent in 2004, and the P/E is 18, based on 2004 earnings. The stock yields 0.2 percent.

Fortune Brands

Fortune Brands is a holding company with a wide variety of top consumer brands. Among them: Moen faucets, Master Lock padlocks, Titleist golf balls, Swingline office products and Jim Beam bourbon.

Fortune's (FO: Research, Estimates) brands have been responding well to improvement in the overall economy. For the third quarter, earnings were up 34 percent on an 8 percent sales gain. Results have also been helped by a pickup in liquor sales after years of stagnation.

Earnings are projected to grow 14 percent in 2004 and average at least 12 percent a year thereafter. The P/E is 17 and the yield is 1.7 percent.

MBNA

MBNA is a leading issuer of credit cards, especially those linked with various kinds of organizations, from alumni societies to animal-welfare groups. This extremely lucrative business has propelled MBNA's earnings growth at a 20 percent compound annual rate over the past five years.

MBNA's (KRB: Research, Estimates) success has been a bit overshadowed by investor fears that consumer spending might falter. But now that an economic recovery has taken hold and job creation is improving, the credit-card business looks more secure.

Earnings are projected to grow 13 percent annually. The stock's P/E is 12 and its yield is 1.6 percent.


Michael Sivy is an editor-at-large for Money magazine. Sign up for free e-mail delivery of Sivy on Stocks every Tuesday and Thursday.  Top of page




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