NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Imagine how happy the parents of the world would be if their children focused on their homework with the same intensity markets devote to what the Federal Reserve might or might not say.
For that matter, imagine how much happier investors might be if markets didn't dwell quite so intently on every little utterance out of the Fed. The central bank has its eighth, and final, meeting of the year Tuesday and the big debate on Wall Street is not over whether it will move on rates (it won't), or even if it will change its risk assessment on the economy (again no).
Instead, what everybody is arguing over is whether the statement the Fed releases following the meeting will say that "policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period."
It's a phrase the Fed started using at its August meeting to indicate to skittish bond investors that it wouldn't raise its overnight funds target rate, now at 1 percent, anytime soon. That put an end to an ugly selloff in the Treasury market that had pushed long-term rates up steeply and that some worried could snuff the economic recovery if it continued.
Removing the statement now would give the Fed the flexibility it would need to raise rates sometime in the first half of next year if economic growth continues to outpace expectations.
The drawback, however, is that the bond market, factoring in increased chances of an early rate hike, could get hurt -- no matter what the Fed does to soften the blow.
"Even if they give you a warm hug while they do it, just the fact that they intentionally changed the statement in order to give themselves more flexibility would force investors to respond," said Credit Suisse First Boston bond strategist Mike Cloherty.
Such a response could be outsized, because trading volume in the Treasury market tends to dry up toward the end of the year. The Fed, mindful of this, has a reputation for having a soft hand with the market in December. Cloherty reckons this time will be no different.
Miller Tabak bond market strategist Tony Crescenzi, on the other hand, thinks the Fed will nix the statement.
It's an opportune time to do so because Friday's weaker-than-expected November jobs report has pretty well convinced everyone rates aren't going up soon. (A week ago, futures markets suggested about a 70 percent chance of a hike by March; now the odds have dropped to 30 percent.) If the Fed pulls the "considerable period" phrase from its statement now, said Crescenzi, nobody is going to take it as a sign that it's suddenly developed an itchy trigger finger. Moreover, plenty of Fed officials have lately given speeches suggesting no hike is imminent.
"Bonds would sell off some, but ultimately the market will remember what the Fed said, and it will remember the payrolls number," said Crescenzi.
Wrapped up as they are in it, bond players also recognize that the debate is a bit ridiculous. Up until 10 years ago, Wall Street's focus used to be on whether the Fed had moved on rates. (It wouldn't tell you if it had, and the only way to tell was by making some arcane market observations.) Then the focus shifted to whether the Fed would move on rates, and then onto whether it would change its policy bias. And now this.
Maybe the Fed's attempts at transparency have gone a bit far, and it's time for it to put a little more opacity back into its decision-making process. Besides potentially making the market less volatile, it might also allow investors to devote more time to thinking about things like the economy and earnings. Imagine that.
Key events in the week ahead
- The Fed meets Tuesday. No change in the fed funds target rate, currently at 1 percent, is expected.
- Economists polled by Briefing.com expect October wholesale inventories, due out Tuesday, grew by 0.1 percent after growing by 0.4 percent in September.
- October business inventories, due out Thursday, are expected to gain 0.1 percent against a September gain of 0.3 percent.
- November retail sales, also slated for Thursday, are expected to grow by 0.5 percent after falling by 0.3 percent in October. Excluding autos, sales are expected to grow by 0.3 percent.
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- Friday's producer price index -- the nation's key reading on inflation at the wholesale level, is expected to inch up by 0.1 percent for November after increasing by 0.8 percent in October. The core, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, is expected to come in flat.
- The University of Michigan's preliminary reading on its consumer sentiment index for December is expected to come in at 96.4, up from 93.7 in November.
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