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CPI shrinks
Key government measure of consumer price inflation posts unexpected decline in November.
December 16, 2003: 9:13 AM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. consumer prices fell in November, the government said Tuesday, missing Wall Street expectations for a slight gain.

The Labor Department reported that the consumer price index (CPI), a broad measure of prices paid by consumers, fell 0.2 percent in November after being unchanged in October. Economists, on average, expected CPI to rise 0.1 percent, according to Briefing.com.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called "core" CPI fell 0.1 percent after rising 0.2 percent in October. Economists expected core CPI to rise 0.1 percent, according to Briefing.com.

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"The lackluster change validates the Fed's view that inflation is not likely to be a major overall issue in 2004," said Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors. "Although this bodes well for policy, it is not a positive for corporate pricing power."

It was the first decline in core CPI since December 1982. In the past 12 months, core CPI has risen just 1.1 percent, the slowest pace since May 1963.

Separately, the Commerce Department said housing starts exploded again in November, jumping to the fastest annual pace since February 1984, while the U.S. current account deficit -- the biggest measure of the trade gap -- shrank unexpectedly.

The reports had little impact on U.S. stock market futures, which continued to point to a negative opening on Wall Street. Treasury bond prices rose.

Despite steady economic growth since the end of 2001, when the latest recession ended, and despite a blistering rate of growth in the third quarter, inflation has stayed low, according to many measures, enabling the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low.

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Last week, the Fed left its key overnight lending rate at the lowest level since 1962 and promised to stay on hold for some time to come.

Low inflation is good news for consumers, but not always good news for companies, some of which are struggling to maintain pricing power even as they see wholesale prices rise. While the year-over-year change in core consumer inflation is at its lowest level in 40 years, producer prices have risen 3.4 percent in the past 12 months, according to a Labor Department report last week.

In Tuesday's report, food prices rose 0.4 percent, but housing prices fell 0.1 percent -- its first decline since April -- and apparel prices fell 0.5 percent. Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent -- health-care prices haven't fallen, in fact, since November 1975.

Transportation costs plunged 1.3 percent, following October's 1.6-percent drop, led by a 5-percent drop in the price of gasoline. New vehicle prices were unchanged, while prices for used cars and trucks fell 2.3 percent.  Top of page




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