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Leading indicators rise
Key gauge meant to forecast economy's direction posts small rise, matching Wall Street estimates.
December 18, 2003: 10:20 AM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A group of leading U.S. economic indicators rose in November, a research group said Thursday, matching Wall Street forecasts.

The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of leading economic indicators (LEI) rose 0.3 percent to 114.2 after rising a revised 0.5 percent in October. Economists, on average, expected the index to rise 0.3 percent, according to Briefing.com.

The news followed a government report that new jobless claims fell last week. The reports helped lift U.S. stock prices in early trading, while Treasury bond prices fell.

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Among the 10 leading indicators that make up the index, jobless claims fell, while consumer expectations, the speed at which businesses get supplies, average weekly manufacturing hours, stock prices and the gap between the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds and the Federal Reserve's key short-term interest rate rose, contributing to the gain in the LEI.

Subtracting from the index were building permits, money supply, manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods outside and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.

After a sluggish recovery from the 2001 recession, the economy grew at a blistering 8.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, its fastest pace in nearly 20 years.

But that growth was partly driven by short-term stimulus including child tax-credit checks and the proceeds from mortgage refinancings, and most analysts believe economic growth has slowed in the fourth quarter.

But the LEI and other indicators are still pointing to decent economic growth, leading many economists to predict a growth rate of about 4 percent in the fourth quarter, much faster than the anemic rates of the first and second quarters.  Top of page




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