NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
A strong year-end rally Monday pushed the Nasdaq composite above 2,000 for the first time in nearly two years and the Dow Jones industrial average to its best close in more than 21 months.
The last five sessions of the year are traditionally winning ones for stocks and many traders are predicting that this year will be no different.
"Normally, this time of year is good for the market," said Robert Long, vice president of investments at Melhado, Flynn & Associates. "You have portfolio managers making end-of-the-year moves, you have a global economy continuing to recover, and in the short term, you have some relief that there was no terrorism attack over the holidays."
The Nasdaq composite (up 33.34 to 2006.48, Charts) jumped 1.7 percent, closing above 2,000 for the first time since Jan. 15, 2002, when the index ended at 2,000.91.
The Dow Jones industrial average (up 125.33 to 10450.00, Charts) and the S&P 500 (up 13.59 to 1109.48, Charts) each rose around 1.2 percent. Volume was light, which is typical during the holiday period. Financial markets are closed Thursday for New Year's Day.
The Nasdaq had breached 2,000 some 3-1/2 weeks ago, on Dec. 3, but failed to close above the psychological barrier.
Monday's gains brought the 30-share Dow to its highest close since March 21, 2002, and the S&P 500 to its best finish since April 19, 2002.
So far this year through Monday's close, the Dow is up more than 25 percent, the Nasdaq is up nearly 50 percent and the S&P 500 is up about 26 percent -- the first up year for the stock market after three years of declines.
While traders say the major indexes are likely to close out the year near Monday's levels, Tuesday could see a small pullback at the open, judging from S&P and Nasdaq futures trading.
In addition, next week, the first full week of trading in the new year, could prove less buoyant.
The Nasdaq's close above 2,000 was positive for the market since it had been lagging the other major indexes earlier in December, said Peter Green, a market analyst at MKM Partners.
"The question is, how seriously do we take what's going on today, considering the volume, and what's going to happen next week when people come back?" Green said. "I would take today as a positive with the caveat that not many people are here."
No earnings reports are on tap this week, due to Thursday's New Year's holiday. In addition, all of the week's economic reports have been crammed into the next two sessions, due to what is expected to be a very light session Friday.
Shortly after the trading starts Tuesday, investors will eye reports on consumer confidence, existing home sales -- by far the biggest part of the housing market -- and manufacturing in the Chicago area.
The Chicago PMI index is forecast to have fallen to 62.0 in December from 64.1 last month, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
Consumer confidence in December is expected to show little change from the previous month, rising to 91.8 from 91.7 in November. Existing home sales are forecast to have slid to an annualized rate of 6.33 million units in December, from 6.35 million units the prior month.
Last week, the Bush administration put the country on "high" alert before Christmas, saying intelligence information showed there was the potential for an attack in the United States during the holidays. But the week passed without a serious domestic incident.
What's moving?
Gains were broad-based, with all 30 of the stocks in the Dow industrials closing higher and various tech sectors boosting the Nasdaq.
The Dow's biggest gainer was Alcoa (AA: up $1.42 to $38.91, Research, Estimates), which rose 3.8 percent on a technical bounce, rather than any news, traders said. The stock is one of many cyclicals benefiting in December from bets that the economy will continue to improve next year and that commodity prices will continue to rise.
Fears of how the mad cow scare might affect restaurant stocks seem to have abated, even amid news of an extended beef recall, as evidenced by gains in McDonald's (MCD: up $0.51 to $24.60, Research, Estimates) and Wendy's (WEN: up $0.56 to $38.55, Research, Estimates).
Both companies issued statements saying that the scare has not impacted December sales. Additionally Monday, brokerage J.P. Morgan Chase raised its rating on McDonald's to "overweight" from "underweight," saying the mad cow-inspired selloff of last week created a buying opportunity.
Semiconductors rose, with Intel (INTC: up $0.79 to $32.15, Research, Estimates) up 2.5 percent following a bullish note from Smith Barney.
The brokerage raised its forecast for the international chip industry next year, saying it now expects 20 percent growth, up from 14 percent. The firm cited increased demand, higher prices and inventory restocking, and said it continues to favor Intel, as well as Cypress Semiconductor (CY: up $0.74 to $21.69, Research, Estimates) and Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS: up $0.72 to $24.85, Research, Estimates).
Among other stocks on the move, XM Satellite Radio (XMSR: up $1.87 to $26.16, Research, Estimates) and Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI: up $0.23 to $2.58, Research, Estimates), makers of direct broadcast radio, both rallied in active trading on signs of solid holiday sales.
Trinity Biotech (TRIB: up $1.86 to $5.14, Research, Estimates) shares soared in unusually active trading after the Irish company received FDA approval to market its fast-results HIV test in the U.S.
Market breadth was positive, with winners beating losers by more than 3-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where 1.04 billion shares traded. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by more than 11-to-5, as 1.39 billion shares changed hands.
Treasury prices fell, sending the 10-year note yield up to 4.24 percent from 4.15 percent late Friday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
The dollar continued to fall against the euro, which topped a record $1.25 before easing back, as well as against the yen.
NYMEX light crude oil futures fell 46 cents to settle at $32.40 a barrel. COMEX gold rallied $2.50 to settle at $415.30 an ounce.
European and Asian stocks closed mostly higher.
|
