NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - How many grains of salt should we take with the December employment report which showed only 1000 jobs created that month?
The first one is the obvious one that all the skeptics pounced on: There are many other indicators showing strength -- from the super-fast third quarter GDP growth rate, to the healthy retail shopping during the holidays, to surveys from manufacturing that show growth.
One that gets less attention is an indicator of small business hiring from the National Federation of Independent Business which took a nice jump up in December.
Bill Dunkelberg, the NFIB's chief economist, puts a lot of weight on his survey's findings because he believes when small business hiring plans move up, hiring and growth in the rest of the economy soon follow.
One criticism of the employment report is that it may be missing new hiring by small businesses.
The payrolls gains - or losses - come from a Labor Department survey of 400,000 companies that are well established.
If countless small businesses are adding a worker here, two workers there, the survey would not pick them up until the Labor Department gets more complete data over a course of months, not weeks.
The criticism is fair enough. But let's look at apples and apples.
|
YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS
|
Follow the news that matters to you. Create your own alert to be notified on topics you're interested in.
Or, visit Popular Alerts for suggestions.
|
|
|
If the labor market was REALLY strong we should see it in the survey of the 400,000 companies surveyed to some extent.
Bottom line - the economy and labor markets appear to be turning, but it's painfully slow progress for the nations un- and under-employed.
Kathleen Hays anchors CNN Money Morning and The FlipSide, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn. As part of CNN's Business News team, she is also a regular contributor to Lou Dobbs Tonight.
|