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Oscar nod means million$
'Lord of the Rings' doesn't need the help but other films will see big gains from the nominations.
January 27, 2004: 4:25 PM EST
By Chris Isidore, CNN/Money senior writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The Academy Award nominations announced Tuesday morning gave a lift to 10 films that could use the boost -- and one that probably doesn't need it.

 
"Lord of the Rings" probably won't see much of an Oscar bump, but other nominees will.

Box-office powerhouse "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King," already on its way to becoming just the second billion-dollar movie in history, probably won't see much by way of additional ticket sales for its best picture nomination Tuesday.

But for the smaller films that grabbed the top nominations Tuesday, such as "Lost in Translation," "Mystic River" and even "Master and Commander," the impact will be in the millions. (For a complete list of Oscar nominations, click here.)

Normally a film gets an extended theatrical run and a boost in ticket sales just from being nominated for best picture, or from one of its stars getting nominated for best actor or best actress. Winning one of those top awards Feb. 29 will give a film an additional boost.

Randy Nelson, professor of economics at Colby College, did a study that estimated a best picture nomination is worth about $10.6 million in additional sales, adjusted for today's ticket prices. That assumes the film was released in the fourth quarter and is still in theaters.

Warner Bros.' 'Mystic River' is one of the nominees poised to see gains from its best picture nomination.  
Warner Bros.' 'Mystic River' is one of the nominees poised to see gains from its best picture nomination.

A best actor or actress nomination for a film should bring an additional $1 million. Films with best picture and actor or actress nominations would get a boost from both. Nominations for other high-profile categories, such as best director or best supporting actor or actress, add little to the film's box office, according to Nelson's study.

Nominated films released earlier in the year that have already been released on DVD and video, such as best picture nominee "Seabiscuit," or those with best acting nominees such as "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl" and "Whale Rider", aren't likely to see much additional box office, even if they briefly return to theaters, Nelson said.

Best picture nominee "Lost in Translation" which is still in theaters, is set to be released on DVD Feb. 3.

The estimates are for additional sales at the U.S. box office. Overseas ticket sales, as well as sales of DVDs and videos, all of which have grown in importance since Nelson's study was concluded, give an additional revenue boost.

Universal unit Focus Films stands to see the greatest benefit of the nominations thanks to 'Lost in Translation' getting a best picture and best actor nod.  
Universal unit Focus Films stands to see the greatest benefit of the nominations thanks to 'Lost in Translation' getting a best picture and best actor nod.

"The Academy Awards is the Good Housekeeping seal of approval," said independent media stock analyst Dennis McAlpine. But McAlpine said that even the expected boost in revenue will do little to lift the stocks of the media conglomerates that own most of the studios with the films nominated Tuesday.

"Lord of the Rings" already has worldwide ticket sales of $876 million, making it the No. 6 movie of all time, though its theatrical run is far from finished. It is about to open in Japan Feb. 13.

While it won't catch 1997's "Titanic," which did worldwide box office of $1.8 billion, the $1 billion mark appears to be within reach. An official with New Line Cinema, a unit of CNN/Money parent Time Warner Inc. (TWX: Research, Estimates), said it was unlikely to go to many more than the nearly 3,000 screens already showing the film, even after the nomination.

Money at the multiplex

For just about every other Oscar nominee, Tuesday's honor is money in the bank, Nelson said.

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"The Oscars (nominations) make people aware of them," said Nelson. "And if you're a theater owner trying to figure out who you're going to book, you want the films with the top nominations."

Last year, films nominated for best picture saw an average 27 percent increase in the number of theaters showing the movie the week after nominations were announced, according to Exhibitor Relations, which tracks box office sales.

Films with a best actor or actress nomination, but without a best picture nod, saw a 16.6 percent increase in the number of theaters showing the film.

Click here for a look at media and entertainment stocks

Assuming Nelson's figures are correct for movies other than "Lord of the Rings," then Tuesday's nomination will provide the greatest boost for Universal Pictures' Focus Films unit, which had a best picture nomination as well as two best acting nods -- for "Lost in Translation's" Bill Murray and Naomi Watts in "21 Grams."

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Golden Globe winner, Peter Jackson, director The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, talks with CNN's Daryn Kagan about 11 Oscar nominations for his film.

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Universal, which is being sold to General Electric Co. (GE: Research, Estimates) by Vivendi Universal (V: Research, Estimates), also got a best picture nod for "Seabiscuit," but that movie is already on DVD and video.

Tied for second in the greatest impact would be Time Warner (TWX: Research, Estimates) and Fox Entertainment (FOX: Research, Estimates), which both should see an estimated $11.6 million lift for a best picture and a best acting nomination.

Walt Disney Co. (DIS: Research, Estimates), which saw the greatest estimated impact from last year's nominations, fell to a tie for fourth this year with Sony Pictures, a unit of Sony Corp. (SNE: Research, Estimates)

Both should see just over $1 million for a single best acting nomination -- Disney for Jude Law in "Cold Mountain, a surprise shutout of the best picture category, and Sony for Diane Keaton in "Something's Got To Give."  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.