NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The monthly chain store numbers today are confirming what we've been seeing -- and writing about -- in the recent weekly numbers from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC): a nice jump in spending at department stores, specialty retailers and discounters in the month of February.

One conclusion easy to reach is that with many Americans getting bigger tax refunds (an average increase of $500 is expected) or at the very least sending smaller tax payments to the government, people are feeling extra change jangling in their pockets and spending it!

The harder factor to gauge is the labor market.

Jobless claims have come down to around 350,000 a week, a level considered consistent with improvement in the employment outlook but not with out-and-out healing.

For proof (or contradiction) of that we await tomorrow's February employment report.

Yesterday we looked at reasons behind growing optimism on Wall Street that the payrolls would far exceed the consensus forecast for a gain of 125,000. Among the factors cited this week is the February ISM manufacturing survey on Monday which showed that more companies are planing to hire workers than had been expected.

But as the cautious prognosticators point out, this has to be weighed against the Conference Board's February survey released last week, which showed more people calling jobs "hard to get" and fewer saying jobs are "plentiful."

Stepping back a bit, the hope is that the burst of spending generated by big tax refunds in the first quarter will spur more spending by consumers, and that will feed through to more orders for cars, computers, CD's. etc.

And that will come on top of fat corporate profits, and better demand from overseas, which will spur businesses not only to spend more on computers and equipment, but to hire more workers.

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The long-awaited virtuous cycle is supposed to kick in as the year progresses, with more jobs spurring more spending, more output and again, more jobs.

The risk, of course, is that with firms super productive and cheap labor overseas available for outsourcing, jobs don't pick up fast enough and wages and salaries remain flat, and the consumer/worker remains stuck in the stagnation of a jobless recovery.  

Kathleen Hays anchors CNN Money Morning and The FlipSide, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn. As part of CNN's Business News team, she also contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.