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CEO confidence slips
But quarterly survey of small- to mid-size business execs shows outlook still at high levels.
March 9, 2004: 11:10 AM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Business leaders remain confident about the future health of the U.S. economy, but their optimism has cooled from last year's peaks, according to a recent survey.

TEC International Inc., a private CEO development firm, said Tuesday its index of the confidence of CEOs of small- to mid-sized U.S. companies slipped to 113.9 in the first quarter from 115.6 in the fourth quarter of 2003.

"Although firms did expect a slightly slower pace of growth, they still judge overall economic conditions quite favorable," Richard Curtin, TEC confidence index consultant, said in a release. Curtin also directs the University of Michigan's closely watched monthly consumer-sentiment surveys.

The results echo those of a monthly survey by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), which said Tuesday that small-business confidence slipped a bit in February, but remained at still-high levels.

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The TEC index, based on a survey of about 1,100 executives in companies with annual sales between $1 million and $1 billion, suffered most from a steep decline in its "expected economic conditions" index, measuring the outlook for the next 12 months. That index fell to 167 from 179 in the fourth quarter of 2003.

Still, about 70 percent of CEOs surveyed expected the economy to improve in the coming year, compared with 81 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003.

Other index components were mostly stable, including the "current conditions," up to 170 from 167, the "expected change in employment," down to 156 from 157, and "expected profit growth," down to 165 from 168.

TEC said about one in five CEOs surveyed planned to move jobs offshore in the next 12 months. With the labor market in its longest slump since the Labor Department started keeping track in 1939, "offshoring" has become a hot-button political issue -- though its impact on the broader labor market has so far been relatively minimal.

More important to the job situation has been the broad drive among companies to contain costs, sometimes by moving jobs overseas, but more often by using technology and other methods to enhance efficiency.

TEC says that small- to mid-size businesses are critical to the health of the broader economy, creating about 75 percent of all new jobs.  Top of page




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