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Despite jobs, confidence falls
IBD/TechnoMetrica gauge, which lately has tracked more established measures, declines again.
April 6, 2004: 10:33 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Consumer confidence slid further in early April, despite March's big jump in job growth, according to the results of a relatively new private survey released Tuesday.

The monthly consumer confidence measure compiled by Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, a private research firm, slid to 52.8 from 54.5 in March. The index has fallen for three straight months after hitting a 22-month high of 60.6 in January.

Though the survey of about 900 households is relatively new, having begun in February 2001, in the past year it has closely tracked movements in the broader consumer confidence measure of the Conference Board, another private research firm.

That more established measure fell in March to its lowest level in five months, driven by worries about the job market.

Other surveys, however, have shown some slight improvement recently, including the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index and the ABC/Money magazine weekly confidence index, which is scheduled for release Tuesday afternoon -- though both are still at relatively low levels.

Last week, the Labor Department reported payrolls grew by a whopping 308,000 jobs in March, far surpassing economists' forecasts and raising hopes that the labor market was finally well on the way to ending its longest slump since the department started keeping records in 1939.

Consumer role important

Wall Street pays close attention to consumers, whose spending fuels more than two-thirds of the nation's economy.

After booming in last year's third quarter, consumer spending growth has slowed. But most economists believe it will stay healthy in the first half of this year, buoyed by larger-than-usual income-tax refund checks and lower tax payments, a residual effect of last year's tax cuts.

But continued labor-market recovery will be necessary to support income growth and stronger consumer spending later in the year, economists believe.

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In any event, consumers don't always spend the way they feel. Confidence plunged after the Sept. 11 terror attacks, for example, but consumers managed to keep spending, rushing to buy new automobiles and other items.

The IBD survey's measure of consumer expectations about the six-month economic outlook fell to 50.5 from 53.6 in March.

The personal financial outlook measure of how respondents feel about their own finances fell to 60.3 from 62.3 in March.

The survey's measure of confidence in federal economic policies rose to 47.7 from 47.5 in March. Its lowest level under President Bush was 47.4 in September 2003.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.