The Federal Reserve now reminds me of a parent who has warned the kids that if they don't "simmer down" as my dad used to day, they're going to get in trouble.
Every economic report will now be instantly vetted to see if it's the one that finally, really, and truly causes the Fed to lose its patience and raise interest rates.
In reality, the Fed is going to be more like a parent who finally reacts to the cumulative "misbehavior" of the economy, in the form of signs of rising inflation, instead of reacting to one incident.
Rising productivity has been very important to the Fed because if workers produce more output per hour, that helps keep unit labor costs down and that's an inflation fighter.
In a weak economy, the Fed was able to view rising energy prices as a potential growth buster, rather than inflation fomenter. In an economy that's actually growing, especially if jobs keep growing, will the Fed now view it more as a potential inflation threat?
Parents want their kids to test the limits, to be independent, to forge out on their own, but they don't want them to get in trouble. Likewise the Fed wants the economy to grow, wants to see some pricing power, but doesn't want that to turn into rampant inflation.
The Fed, like any good parent, has a tough job.
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