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Consumer confidence clicks higher
ABC News/MONEY poll also says expectations about future direction of the economy are grimmer.
May 18, 2004: 7:32 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Consumer confidence is proving resilient in the face of rising gasoline prices, matching its best level in three months for the week ended May 16, despite the pain at the pump.

Expectations for the future direction of the economy, however, are somewhat grimmer, nearing a 14-month low.

The ABC News/MONEY magazine Consumer Comfort Index, a gauge of current consumer sentiment, stands at -11 on its scale of +100 to -100. That matches the three-month high hit just two weeks ago, and represents an 11-point gain since the year's -22 low set on March 14.

The index has hovered between -11 and -13 for four weeks, despite the run-up in gas prices, now $2.02 per gallon.

The ABC/MONEY index, particularly the buying-climate component, has been sensitive to gas prices in the past. It's apparent that while pump prices are rising, other factors in the economy are keeping confidence from falling.

It's also possible that confidence would be higher still were gasoline not so expensive.

Thirty-seven percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as "good" or "excellent," compared to 36 percent the previous week. The highest level of confidence in this category, 80 percent, was set Jan. 16, 2000 and the lowest, 7 percent, in late 1991 and early 1992.

Americans also felt slightly more confident about their personal finances, with 58 percent rating their own finances as "good" or "excellent" versus 57 percent the week prior. Confidence peaked at 70 percent Aug. 30, 1998 and January 2000 and bottomed out at 42 percent March 14, 1993.

Consumers are still comfortable with spending. The survey's buying gauge rose to 58 percent from 57 percent the previous week as more Americans said it's a "good" or "excellent" time to buy things they want or need. The best level of confidence was set at 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000, and the worst, 20 percent, in the fall of 1990.

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Expectations for the future direction of the economy, measured separately, are not faring as well as current consumer sentiment.

Forty-one percent of respondents say the economy's getting worse, up 14 points since the start of the year. That's only a point away from March's level of pessimism--the highest since March 2003, shortly before the U.S. bombing campaign in Baghdad. Thirty-seven percent had a pessimistic outlook last month.

A smaller 25 percent say the economy's getting better, edging close to the low for the year (also set in March) and down nine points since January.

The ABC News/MONEY magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. The results are based on 1,000 interviews in the month ended May 16, 2004, and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points.  Top of page




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