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Markets & Stocks
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Bonds, dollar trade lower
Treasurys hurt by strong manufacturing data; greenback weakens against yen, euro.
May 28, 2004: 3:24 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Treasury prices fell Friday after a surprisingly strong survey of manufacturing in the Midwest overshadowed soft readings on inflation and consumer sentiment.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note slipped 11/32 in price to 100-25/32, lifting its yield to 4.65 percent from 4.60 percent late Thursday. Nevertheless, yields are still down 12 basis points for the week, the best performance in three months of relentless increases.

The 30-year bond lost 12/32 to 100-14/32, taking its yield to 5.34 percent from 5.32 percent, while two-year yields rose to 2.54 percent from 2.47 percent.

Five-year notes dropped 9/32 in price to 100-11/32, nudging yields to 3.80 percent from 3.73 percent late Thursday, but still down from 3.90 percent a week ago.

Meanwhile, the dollar pared its losses following the Chicago PMI report. The euro bought $1.2210, up slightly from $1.2106 late Thursday, and the dollar bought ¥110.25, down from late Thursday's ¥111.23.

The morning's data revealed restrained inflation and consumers becoming more gloomy, but also surprising strength in Midwest manufacturing. All this did nothing to change views that the Fed will hike interest rates next month, though the tempering of inflation was enough to calm fears of an even more aggressive tightening campaign.

"Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important," Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards and Sons, told Reuters. "The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast."

Traders said some buying was motivated by money managers' need to adjust their average portfolio durations to benchmark indexes. The much-followed Lehman Treasury index has extended by a hefty 0.15 year this month and indexed funds may need to pick up longer-dated debt to match it, thus leading to a flattening of the yield curve.

Still, the fact remains that the Fed will almost certainly raise interest rates this year, an event that rarely favors fixed-income debt.

"We're looking for rates to end the year at 2.0 percent and we expect the Fed to speed up its tightening next year," Ram Bhagavatula, chief economist at RBS Financial Markets, told Reuters.

"That means Treasurys should be sold at every opportunity, like after this week's gains for instance," he added.

Strength in the Chicago Purchasing Management index of business activity backed up that argument. The index jumped to 68.0 in May, when economists had looked for a modest pullback to 61.0 after April's already robust 63.9. The employment index also firmed, pointing to some improvement in the labor market.

"This is a very stunning report. The Chicago PMI is a volatile series and I thought you'd get some retracement and you didn't," said an impressed Joseph LaVorgna, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities.

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In contrast, the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May surprised by dipping to 90.2. Analysts had expected a steady 94.2. Analysts blamed Iraq and rising gasoline prices for the pullback, which came despite generally upbeat news on the economy this month.

Treasurys had bounced earlier when the price index for core personal consumption expenditures, one of the Fed's favored inflation gauges, rose only 0.1 percent in April, below forecasts of a 0.2 percent gain.

Downward revisions to past data meant the annual rate edged up to only 1.4 percent. Many analysts had looked for a rise to 1.6 percent.

Traders said activity was light going into the end of the trading session, scheduled for an early close at 2 p.m. ET ahead of the three-day U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend.  Top of page


-- Reuters contributed to the story




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.