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Special Reports > Your Job 2004
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Jobless claims drop, but...
Report shows sharp drop in those filing for benefits, but seasonal factors distort results.
July 8, 2004: 10:10 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The number of people filing jobless claims fell sharply last week, a government report showed Thursday, as the reading on the employment market came in much stronger than Wall Street expectations.

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The Labor Department reported that 310,000 filed for initial jobless benefits in the week ended July 3, on a seasonally adjusted basis. That compares to the revised 349,000 who filed the previous week. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast that 345,000 filed last week.

But much of the decline in the claims data was due to a seasonal adjustment, which anticipated the regular layoff of auto workers due to the closing of assembly plants to prepare for the new model year. This year, many of those layoffs are more likely to occur in this week's data rather than last week's results.

"This won't hold up," said Mark Vitner, economist at Wachovia Securities. "This (drop) really shouldn't have been unexpected."

The non-seasonally adjusted number showed that those filing for initial claims rose to 351,137 in the week ended July 3, an increase of 32,751 from the previous week.

The report is the first reading on the strength of the employment market since Friday's June monthly jobs report, which came in much weaker than expected. Anthony Chan, chief economist with Banc One Investment Advisors, said that even with the distortion caused by the seasonal adjustment, Thursday's report shows the jobs market continues to improve.

"Clearly it's overstated, but this has at least a hint, an aroma of an improving labor market," said Chan.

The seasonally adjusted four week moving average of jobless claims fell 10,250 to 336,000 in this report.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.