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Not a jolly June for discounters
Industry watchers say weak results from Wal-Mart, Target may signal slowdown in spending.
July 8, 2004: 10:30 AM EDT
By Parija Bhatnagar, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Retail behemoth Wal-Mart led the parade of retailers that reported disappointing June sales on Thursday, with many of them blaming unseasonably cool and wet weather for soft sales.

However, the overall weakness in June was somewhat offset by a better showing from high-end sellers and specialty teen apparel chains.

Wal-Mart Stores, the world's largest retailer, reported June sales that were at the low end of its reduced guidance for the month due to "unseasonable" weather and disappointing sales over the Father's Day weekend.

The Bentonville, Ark.-based discounter said same-store sales for the five-week period ended July 2 rose 2.2 percent. Last week Wal-Mart cut its monthly forecast, saying it expected sales at stores open at least a year to be up 2 to 4 percent, compared to its earlier guidance of a 4 to 6 percent gain.

Net sales for the month rose 9.3 percent to $29.6 billion from $24.6 billion a year earlier.

Among the strongest-performing categories for the month were consumables, pet supplies and electronics. Wal-Mart said sales of seasonal items such as lawn and garden and pool products continued to remain weak.

For July, Wal-Mart (WMT: Research, Estimates) sees sales at stores open at least a year to be up in the 2 to 4 percent range.

Target Corp (TGT: Research, Estimates)., the No. 2 discounter behind Wal-Mart, posted comparable sales up 2 percent, well below its earlier guidance for the month of a 5 to 7 percent gain. For July, Target forecast sales up between 1 to 2 percent.

Wholesale discount club Costco (COST: Research, Estimates) posted same-store sales up 6 percent, but fell short of analysts' estimates of an 8.3 percent increase.

In its pre-recorded sales update, Costco said gasoline and food sales were particularly strong. But sales of clothing, housewares, and books suffered.

"June was a difficult month for retailers and it's also typically a month during which comparable sales are driven by discount sales," said Kurt Barnard, president of Barnard's Retail Consultancy.

Added Barnard, "The weather was a factor and the effects of higher gasoline prices are finally catching up with retailers at the registers. Beyond that, I think we're likely to see softness for the next two to three months."

Bill Dreher, analyst with Deutsche Bank Securities, agreed with Barnard's view.

"There appears to be a pause in consumer spending, especially with the low-to-middle income consumers," said Dreher. "The slowing sales also counterbalance positive economic data that show rising income and confidence levels and oil prices coming down. As far as sales go, this is a period where the consumer is taking a break until we get into the back-to-school period."

Upscale retailer Neiman Marcus (NMGA: Research, Estimates) saw a strong 13 percent increase in sales last month, driven by sales of couture hand bags, shoes and home decor products

And sales at high-end department store chain Nordstrom (JWN: Research, Estimates) rose 5.7 percent, but still fell short of analysts' expectations for 6.5 percent growth.

Limited Brands (LTD: Research, Estimates) said same-store sales last month jumped 19 percent, helped largely by semi-annual sales at both its Bath & Body Works and Victoria's Secret chains

Teen shoppers hit the malls in fury, driving up sales at retailers such as Pacific Sunwear, Aeropostale and American Eagle Outfitters.

Pacific Sunwear (PSUN: Research, Estimates) posted a 7 percent rise in sales last month, sales at Aeropostale (ARO: Research, Estimates) jumped a strong 21.3 percent and an 8.7 percent increase at American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS: Research, Estimates). The Gap, Inc. (GPS: Research, Estimates) missed the party, with a comparable sales decline of 2 percent in June.

"I think we were already prepared for some of these misses. The key question now is whether this weakness is temporary or does it signal a permanent downdraft in the pace of consumer spending," said Michael Niemira, chief economist and director of research for the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC).

"The other thing is that as retailers move into a period of tougher comparisons in the second half of the year, it will be difficult for them to maintain the same pace of sales growth that they've enjoyed in the first half," Niemira said.  Top of page




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