NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - What will determine the outcome of the presidential election?

Terror fears and war angst are important, but many pundits believe the economy in general and jobs in particular is what will really swing the votes.

When it comes to jobs, the number created or the level of the unemployment rate may not be the most important indicator to watch. It may be the size of people's paychecks that really matters, whether their wages are swelling or stagnating.

If this is the case in 2004, then it may not bode so well for President Bush.

The wages of middle- and lower-income voters have gone nowhere fast, while upper-income, better-skilled workers have scored meatier gains. Add on gains from stocks and the more affluent continued to get more affluent.

Some say the Bush tax cuts made this worse, others say it's the way it is. Until more workers get better educated, these gaps will persist.

No matter what the cause or who deserves the "blame," it is something the Democrats will no doubt try to use against the Republicans. As for the GOP, they will surely continue to portray themselves as the party of entrepreneurs, small business people, and opportunity, unfettered by a burdensome government.

The race for the Joe and Jill Paycheck's vote is underway.  

Kathleen Hays anchors CNN Money Morning and The FlipSide, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn. As part of CNN's Business News team, she also contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.