NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Wall Street will begin next week in a strange new world, one in which some of its old points of reference have changed and the outlook for the economy, corporate earnings, interest rates and the election have abruptly grown cloudier.

For one thing, the major stock indexes are in uncharted territory for the year, having closed Friday at new 2004 lows, pummeled by new highs for crude-oil prices and a much weaker-than-expected government report on job growth in July, both of which raised questions about the economy's future health. (For a list of the coming week's key events, click here.)

The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week down 3.2 percent. The Nasdaq lost 3.4 percent. The S&P 500 lost 5.8 percent and fell below its trading range of the past several months, tearing out a price floor of about 1,080, which in prior months had enticed buyers back into the market.

To some technical analysts, that's bad news.

"We've left ourselves without support as we're breaking to new lows for the year," said Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist at Joseph Stevens & Co.

So far this year, when price floors have been touched, stocks rallied. Now that they've broken through the looking glass, prices could be on a downward trajectory for some time to come, Suttmeier said.

"I think we've clearly returned to a bear market, and stocks are going to be heading lower for the rest of the year," he said.

Other analysts aren't so sure, believing the market's trading-range tendencies can continue a while longer.

"A lot of the market is beginning to resist the downside because it's already been hurt so badly," said Larry Wachtel, market analyst at Wachovia Securities. "That's what I think will be the primary factor next week."

Still, despite their lazy moves up and down for the past six months, give or take, stocks have been steadily trending lower, and could keep doing so, whether in a straight or a zig-zag line.

"We ultimately expect the overall market to be down...and end up with a correction that totals 10 to 15 percent from the peak," Charles Blood, director of financial markets and economic analysis at Brown Brothers Harriman, said.

Blood also believes, however, that stocks can move higher once the correction is over, and most analysts still believe the fundamentals of corporate earnings and economic growth are strong enough to keep the end of the world at bay.

But investors are also still dealing with the prospect that the economy and earnings could be significantly cooler in the coming months than they've been in the past year or so.

After posting year-over-year growth better than 20 percent for four quarters in a row, corporate earnings are expected to slow this year to rates of about 15 percent in the second half and below 10 percent in 2005, according to analyst estimates compiled by earnings tracker First Call.

Such deceleration is only natural -- it'd be almost impossible for earnings to keep matching the outrageous gains of recent quarters. (For more on this week's key earnings reports, click here.)

The consensus outlook for the economy, however, has been sunnier. Even last week's grim news about job growth was written off by many economists as just the residual effect of the economy's "soft patch" in June.

Others see more ominous signs. The Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly leading index of economic growth has been drilling steadily downward for several weeks. Last week, the index fell to its lowest level since April 2003.

"We're at the point in the economic cycle, which comes in every economic cycle, where you move from an acceleration phase to a deceleration phase," said ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan. "We'll continue to grow, but not as fast."

Achuthan has said for several weeks that he believes the economy is not suffering from a one-time soft spot, but rather a return to less-lofty, trend growth rates of about 3 percent. Other economists are starting to get that religion, too.

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"The economy will expand by 3 percent from here on out, and we will have growth in jobs of about 100,000 to 200,000 per month, and that's it," said Rich Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research. "Get used to it."

And if oil prices stay well above $40 a barrel, or cross $50, as some analysts believe is possible, and if job growth isn't any stronger than it has been in the past two months, then even 3 percent economic growth could be unattainable.

Meanwhile, nearly overlooked in all this, there's a Federal Reserve meeting this week. Despite last Friday's weak job news, economists and market participants fully expect the Fed to raise its target for its key overnight lending rate a quarter percentage point.

"I don't think the jobs report will change the Fed's plan, which had been set forth rather clearly following its June [policy] meeting," said former Fed Governor Andrew Brimmer, president of Brimmer & Co. in Washington.

The rate hike may not worry stocks too much, since it's been fairly well telegraphed and seemed to be priced into financial markets on Friday, after the shock of the jobs report wore off.

Poor economic news in the days to come could forestall another Fed hike, of course, but that's a double-edged sword. A weak economy also means weak corporate profits, and it could send President Bush packing in November, a worrisome prospect for mostly Republican Wall Street.

• On Tuesday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its first reading of productivity in the second quarter. Economists, on average, expect productivity, which has been a key to boosting corporate profits, while possibly keeping payroll growth weak, to slow to 2 percent from 3.8 percent in the first quarter, according to Briefing.com.
• Meanwhile on Tuesday morning, the Fed begins its policy meeting. Its decision is scheduled to be announced at 2:15 p.m. All of the 20 primary dealers, banks doing business directly with the Fed, interviewed by Reuters on Friday said they expected a quarter-point rate hike.
• On Thursday morning, the Labor Department will report on the number of new claims for unemployment benefits in the week ending Aug. 7. Economists believe claims rose to 340,000 from 336,000 the prior week.
• On Thursday morning, the Commerce Department releases its measure of business inventories in June. Economists, on average, think inventories grew 0.5 percent, compared with 0.4 percent in May.
• On Friday morning, the BLS will release its measure of wholesale inflation in July. Economists expect the producer price index to rise 0.3 percent after falling 0.3 percent in June. Excluding food and energy costs, core PPI is expected to rise 0.1 percent, compared with 0.2 percent in June.
• Friday morning, the Commerce Department will release its gauge of the June trade balance, or imbalance, with the rest of the world. Economists believe the gap rose to 46.5 billion from $46 billion in May.
• In a separate report on Friday, the Commerce Department will report on retail sales in July. Economists believe sales rose 1.1 percent after falling 1.1 percent in June. Excluding autos, sales are expected to rise 0.4 percent after falling 0.2 percent in June.
• Later Friday morning, the University of Michigan will release its preliminary measure of consumer confidence in August. Economists expect its index to rise to 98 from 96.7 in July.