NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Could oil be taking a toll on Europe's growth now, too?

More and more evidence is piling up that growth has slowed in some of the biggest economies there, and rising oil prices could be part of the reason.

The oil question is a big one for the Federal Reserve. If they come crashing down at some point, because global supplies build up, terror fears abate, and inventories build, prices could come tumbling down. And that could bring gas prices down too -- a boon to consumers and a boost to the economy.

The Fed is betting on that.

But in the oil market no one has made money this year by betting on falling oil prices and as a result the traders and speculators have the bit in their teeth.

So far the attacks in Iraq and the problems in oil-producing giant Russia have been on the oil bulls' side, not the Fed's. Between the two of those bets, the one the Fed's making is much more important for the economy, the markets, and the election.  

Kathleen Hays anchors CNN Money Morning and The FlipSide, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn. As part of CNN's Business News team, she also contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.