NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If the nation's leading Fed head, Alan Greenspan, has any doubts about hiking rates at the Fed's meeting in two weeks, now is the day he can dispel them as he testifies before the House Budget Committee.
The betting is solidly that he will not, that he will reiterate Fed officials' view that any softness we have seen of late is temporary. In fact, many economists expect him to point to last Friday's employment report showing a gain of 144,000 jobs as proof the soft patch is firming up.
If he shows any signs of doubt, that could get the markets moving.
The main part of his testimony is expected to dwell on the problem of how to finance Social Security and Medicare for the coming wave of Baby Boomer retirees, as he did in Jackson Hole a week and a half ago.
And Democrats are likely to once again hammer him for his support of tax cuts as not harmful to the federal budget deficit, support that many believe helped President Bush get his tax cuts passed by Congress.
But if there's any breaking news that moves markets it will be his remarks on the economy.
Which is why the Fed's Beige Book survey of the economy this afternoon, also part of the lead-in to September 21 policy meeting, will be dissected to see if it also paints a rosy picture of job growth, rising consumer demand, and resilience in the face of rising oil prices.
Kathleen Hays anchors CNN Money Morning and The FlipSide, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn. As part of CNN's Business News team, she also contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.
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