NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Talk to most economists and they'll tell you the job market is improving. Talk to your neighbors, and chances are you'll get a very different story.
The latest consumer confidence survey again seems to bear this out.
The Conference Board reported that of the 5,000 people surveyed earlier this month, more think jobs are hard to find -- 28.3 percent -- than say jobs are plentiful -- 16.8 percent. The survey also found that both those numbers showed consumers less sanguine about the job market than in August.
But economists surveyed by Reuters estimated that employers added 155,000 jobs to their payrolls this month, which would be the best payroll gain since May. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 5.4 percent.
So what gives? With forecasters, investors and the two presidential campaigns trying to get a handle on what next week's September jobs report will say, who's to be believed, economists or average folks?
Even some economists admit consumers may have greater real-world insights in trying to gauge the strength of the U.S. labor market.
"The risk is that there's something that economists aren't picking up," said Drew Matus, senior economist with Lehman Brothers. "As oil prices go higher, firms see margins compress and that could put a squeeze on hiring."
Lehman is forecasting that 175,000 jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in September, and that 170,000, on average, will be added in the fourth quarter.
The question is how do consumers form their opinion about the strength of the job market.
Few economists believe things like monthly payroll numbers play a role in forming consumer opinion. But there is a debate among economists as to whether consumers use personal information or news reports to form their judgments.
"People don't look at economic data. But they know their own firm, they know if it's solid, they know if it's hiring and if people are getting raises," said Robert Brusca of FAO Economics. "Even if they're not looking for a job, they know what's going on with their brother or sister or friend's job search. That's what makes these surveys powerful."
But other economists said just a small portion of American workers are looking for work, or even know someone who is.
Those economists argue that most people form their job-market perceptions from news reports. And with the election drawing near, there's been a lot of reporting on troubles in the labor market.
"I think they would be responding to all the talk of outsourcing and all the talk in the headlines," said Mark Vitner of Wachovia Securities, which is forecasting at least 200,000 jobs being added to payrolls in September, one of the more bullish forecasts.
Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, agrees with Brusca that it's more personal information than news reports shaping consumers' attitudes about the job market, though she said the unemployment rate can also influence opinions.
Even some economists who have a bearish attitude about the labor market said it's tough to base any estimates on a specific monthly report on consumer attitudes.
"I wouldn't want to tell any big story off these numbers," said Brusca, who is forecasting 80,000 to 100,000 new jobs for September, which is among the lowest of major economists.
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