NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Tepid, tepid, tepid -- that's the outlook for consumer spending when retail giant Wal-Mart has monthly sales that only rise 2.4%.

Okay, maybe the late 1990s spoiled us, when sales at Wal-Mart were frequently up in high single digits -- if not in the low double digits!

The knee-jerk analysis points to higher gas prices. And just wait till we all get hit with higher home heating oil and natural gas bills to see what happens to spending. On the other hand, big-ticket purchases are holding up pretty well, aided by low interest rates, so it doesn't make sense to put consumer spending in the economy's minus column, not yet.

A survey from MAPI, the Manufacturers Alliance, shows that activity has slowed a bit from record highs, but is still expanding nicely.

The big question now: Will consumers keep spending enough to push manufacturing ahead, or conversely, does manufacturing have enough oomph to keep growing and keep the economy on track?  

Kathleen Hays anchors CNN Money Morning and The FlipSide, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn. As part of CNN's Business News team, she also contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.