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WSJ: $50 oil cuts half-point from GDP
Survey says economists see oil slowing economic growth, if prices remain above $50 for a quarter.
October 14, 2004: 4:34 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A new survey shows economists are ready to shave a half-point off the nation's economic growth forecasts, if oil remains above $50 a barrel for three months, a press report said Thursday.

According to the Wall Street Journal, 54 economists who participated in the paper's survey said if oil stays in the $50-$59 range for an entire quarter, they would shave half a point off their gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for that quarter.

"Rising oil and energy costs and their negative effects on economic growth, inflation and profits constitute the biggest risk to [the economy] since the bursting of the stock-market bubble in 2000-2001," Allen Sinai of New York City-based Decision Economics told the Journal. "Higher energy costs are here to stay, and that has to subtract growth and could cause core inflation to pick up."

Oil prices have been hovering in the $40s for months, a price the economists said only downgrades GDP by 0.1 percentage point. So far, $50-plus prices haven't seen a sustained run; oil first settled above the $50-mark on the New York Mercantile Exchange earlier in October.

The survey also noted that oil in the $60-$69 price range would cut 1 percent from GDP, according to the economists.

While oil is at an historic high in raw dollar value, it is far cheaper now than the adjusted-for-inflation $80-per-barrel price of the early 1980's.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.