NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If the economy is doing so well, why isn't George Bush a shoe-in for the presidency? The answer seems pretty simple.

First of all, the war in Iraq has polarized us voters. Some of us think fighting the war was necessary to show the world we are tough and will do what we have to do to protect ourselves. And some of us think it was an ill-conceived venture based on faulty if not fraudulent information, that will cost us far more in lives and money than it will ever bring us in benefits.

Beyond that, there are some of us who have secure, good-paying jobs, and money in the bank, houses that have skyrocketed in value, maybe even portfolios that are churning out a decent return. For us, the economy may not be roaring but it's doing well enough for us to feel good and to feel good about the guy who's been the White House the past four years.

Then there are those of us who have been laid off, or seen our colleagues laid off and unable to find new jobs with salaries close to what they made before -- if they can find jobs at all.

The pinch of rising health care costs, and higher gas prices makes it tougher to save money and get ahead. And oh, by the way, we may have aging parents to take care of and kids to put through college. This group isn't sure Bush is on the right track.

The big question come election day for many people will be "the devil you know versus the devil you don't." Right now jobs growth and consumer confidence seem to narrowly point to a Kerry win while cumulative GDP gains and income growth could be signaling a Bush win.

Let's just all hope that on November 3rd we know the answer. If we don't, a stock market tumble could be bad news for whoever ends up in the White House.  

Kathleen Hays anchors CNN Money Morning and The FlipSide, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn. As part of CNN's Business News team, she also contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.