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Oil back above $50 on Bush win
Traders ignore report showing inventory build and focus on president's price-boosting policies.
November 3, 2004: 2:16 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Oil prices rose back to the $50 barrel range Tuesday as traders ignored a morning report showing a build in crude inventories and focused on John Kerry's concession speech, which sealed a second term for President Bush.

Traders bet that a Bush victory would raise oil prices as the administration is expected to continue filling the Strategic Oil Reserve, pursuing a more aggressive Middle East policy that could escalate violence and promote a supply-side energy policy that will do little to limit demand.

U.S. light crude for December delivery jumped 98 cents to trade at $50.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude rose 63 cents to $47.18.

The news offset a government report earlier Wednesday morning that said crude supplies jumped by 6.3 million barrels over last week, which had caused oil prices to briefly fall.

"A Bush status quo results in somewhat higher oil prices both in the short and the longer term in my view," Tim Evans, an analyst at IFR Energy Services, told Reuters.

"In the short run, it means more oil drained from the market into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve."

Bush has said he would continue filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to capacity, a policy Kerry promised to reverse. Analysts also said Kerry would be more likely to try to contain demand growth with energy conservation measures and financing for alternative fuels.

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"A Bush victory will be big for oil demand and keep prices high," Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago, told Reuters "Not only will the SPR be filled but I think they may expand it."

Bush has said he will fill the final 30 million barrels of the 700-million-barrel reserve by next year but there is some concern among traders that the SPR could be expanded to one billion barrels.

Some analysts said a Bush win could stoke nervousness about U.S. policy in the oil-producing Middle East, particularly OPEC's second-biggest producer Iran.

"In particular, if another Bush government moves on to Iran, then oil prices would go very high and really threaten China's economic development," Andy Xie, Morgan Stanley's chief Asia economist, told Reuters.  Top of page




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