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Commentary > HaysWire
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Dollar dodging at the Fed
Sure the currency is tumbling, but don't expect the FOMC to do much out of the ordinary today.
November 10, 2004: 8:40 AM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - It's pretty clear that another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve today will not be much of a headline maker.

What could get people to sit up and notice is if the Fed suggests it's getting more worried about inflation and maybe even willing to consider moving rates higher at something more aggressive than a slow, measured pace.

This is not expected on Wall Street.

In fact some still think the Fed might signal the opposite, that is ready to pause and NOT hike rates in December because oil prices are still high and because many people wonder if the big jump in jobs in October will prove to be another one-month wonder.

But there is a camp on Wall Street that thinks it's time for the Fed at long last to STOP saying the risk of falling inflation and rising inflation are equal, that it's time for the FOMC to shift to a stance where it finally says that it is now more worried about the risk of a pick-up in inflation in an expanding economy.

The dollar is in the background, on the defensive, with traders wondering how much lower they can push it, and a signal from the Fed that it's going to keep on raising rates despite head winds like high oil prices could give the buck some support. What we should not expect from the Fed today is any kind of overt reference to the dollar's weakness; perhaps not even to the nation's big trade deficit.

First, the dollar is rarely a prime consideration for the Fed; it focuses much more on the domestic economy. And second, because if the Fed even mentions the dollar, it would call attention to the dollar's weakness, and that's something policymakers are hoping will peter out and even reverse itself without any direct words or actions from U.S. policymakers.  Top of page


Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.