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Markets & Stocks
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Rally to rage for week 4?
The S&P 500 is at a more than 3-year high. Will it build on it or pull back in the week ahead?
November 14, 2004: 10:02 AM EST
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The three-week old rally has lifted the market to its best levels of the year, a factor both encouraging and worrisome.

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Many investors had been sitting on the sidelines in recent months, waiting for the presidential election to pass, oil prices to peak and the Fed to clarify its intentions on interest rates. All those things have come to pass and the relief-fueled rally has reflected that.

While that relief, combined with strongly bullish seasonal factors should continue to support the stock market over the next few months, analysts say that in the next week or so, the market is likely to see a little consolidation.

The Dow closed Friday at a seven-month high, the Nasdaq closed at a nine-month high and the S&P 500 closed Friday at its highest level in almost 39 months.

"I think we are probably overbought here, and there's going to be a pullback, although stocks should move higher through the end of the year," said Doug Sandler, equity strategist at Wachovia Securities.

What's cooking next week?

Next week is fairly jam-packed with earnings and economic news, due to the fact that the following week is Thanksgiving, when news is slow and plenty Wall Street professionals are on vacation.

Next week brings reports on manufacturing, the housing market, inflation, industrial production and capacity utilization. (For a look at next week's big economic news, click here.)

While most of the potentially market-moving earnings are already out, next week brings a pack of results from retailers and techs.

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Approximately 45 retailers issue earnings next week, according to Briefing.com, and investors will be scouring the results for information about the holiday shopping season and the strength of the consumer. The recent October retail sales report beat estimates, raising hopes for the all-important holiday period, but other anecdotal evidence have been less upbeat.

The most closely watched of next week's batch will be Lowe's (Research), Home Depot (Research) and Wal-Mart Stores (Research), all due in the first two days of the week.

Hewlett-Packard (Research) and Applied Materials (Research) are the big tech earnings due next week. Dow component Walt Disney also reports. (For a look at next week's big earnings, click here.)

Good seasons

While the market could see a little pullback next week, beyond that, the market outlook looks potentially bullish through the end of the year, analysts said.

"Short term, it looks like it needs to slow down, but through the end of the year, the rally looks like it's going to keep going," said Paul H. Levine, president of Lifetime Financial Strategies.

"There's very little resistance right now," he said. "There's money being put to work, a lot of shorts that have been holding out are getting in, and there's also powerful seasonal factors at play."

November starts the three best months of the year for the major indexes. Since 1950, November has been the best month of the year for the S&P 500 and the second best month of the year for the Dow. November has been the third best month of the year for the Nasdaq since its inception in 1971.

Barry Hyman, equity strategist at Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum said that provided the price of oil doesn't resume its upward climb, the major gauges should be higher through the end of the year.

Key events in the week ahead

  • The week brings two regional reports on manufacturing. The NY Empire State index, due Monday is expected to have risen to 20.4 in November from 17.4 in October, according to Briefing.com estimates. Thursday's Philly Fed index is expected to have fallen to 23.2 from 28.5 in October.
  • The Labor Department releases the October producer price index (PPI) Tuesday. PPI likely rose 0.5 percent after rising 0.1 percent in September. The "core" PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, likely rose 0.1 percent after rising 0.3 percent in September.
  • On Wednesday, the Labor Department releases the consumer price index (CPI), the most widely-watched measure of inflation. CPI likely rose 0.4 percent in October after rising 0.2 percent in September. The "core" CPI is expected to have risen 0.1 percent after having risen 0.3 percent in September.
  • Wednesday brings reports on the housing market. October housing starts are expected to have risen to a 1.980 million unit annual rate from a 1.898 million unit annual rate in September. Building permits are expected to have fallen to a 1.980 million unit rate in October from a read of 1.998 million units in September.
  • Industrial production is expected to have risen 0.4 percent in October, in a report due Wednesday, after rising 0.1 percent in September. Capacity utilization is expected to rise to 77.4% from 77.2% in September.

Key earnings in the week ahead

  • Lowe's reports earnings Monday before the bell. The home improvement retailer likely earned 65 cents per share, up from 56 cents a year ago, according to First Call estimates. Rival Home Depot reports Tuesday morning and is expected to have earned 57 cents per share versus 50 cents a year ago.
  • Wal-Mart Stores reports third-quarter results before the bell Tuesday. The No. 1 retailer is expected to have earned 54 cents per share, up from 46 cents a year ago.
  • Hewlett-Packard reports earnings after the bell Tuesday. The PC-maker likely earned 37 cents, analysts expect, a penny more than a year ago.
  • Applied Materials reports earnings before the bell Wednesday. The chip gear maker is expected to have earned 26 cents per share, two cents short of a year ago.
  • Walt Disney reports after the close Thursday. The company likely earned 18 cents per share, down from 26 cents a year ago, analysts expect.
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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.